EUR/GBP Technical Analysis and Trading Plan for Next Week
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Wave Structures and Harmonic Patterns:
The current wave count suggests that price action is completing a higher-degree corrective pattern.
The presence of a potential Wave C up to a swing failure pattern (SFP) hints at exhaustion of buying pressure.
The 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels align with resistance zones, providing targets for potential reversals.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Confluence:
Resistance Zone: The 0.84250-0.84473 region acts as a key reversal area marked by the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Support Zone: The 0.83247 level aligns with the 0.618 retracement, serving as the invalidation point for bullish setups.
Order Block Areas: The marked shaded regions reflect historical buying and selling activity that can trigger significant price reactions.
Volume Profile:
High-volume nodes indicate areas of significant interest and potential consolidation. Price reactions around these levels may signal breakouts or reversals.
Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs):
The chart features a swing failure pattern near 0.84473, suggesting that an attempt to break this high might lead to a reversal if rejected. This level should be monitored closely.
Step-by-Step Trading Plan:
Short Setup:
Entry: Consider short positions near 0.84250-0.84473, where confluence with Fibonacci and historical resistance exists.
Stop Loss: Place stops above 0.84473 to protect against a breakout.
Target Levels:
Initial target at 0.83850 (0.382 retracement).
Secondary target at 0.83247 (0.618 support).
Long Setup:
Entry: If price action consolidates and holds above 0.83850 without triggering the short scenario, a potential long opportunity may arise.
Stop Loss: Below 0.83247 (invalidation of the bullish scenario).
Target Levels: Look for a move towards 0.84473 and beyond, contingent on a break of the SFP.
Validation and Invalidation Points:
Bearish Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.84473 confirms the invalidation of a short bias.
Bullish Invalidation: If the price closes below 0.83247 and sustains this level, the bullish setup is invalidated.
Key Takeaways:
Volume and Order Flow: Watch for shifts in volume and the direction of order flow as they indicate potential bias changes.
Wave Completion: Ensure that Wave 5 aligns with structural resistance and volume divergence for high-conviction trade setups.
Risk Management: Always adhere to strict risk parameters, ensuring no more than 1-2% risk per trade.
The current wave count suggests that price action is completing a higher-degree corrective pattern.
The presence of a potential Wave C up to a swing failure pattern (SFP) hints at exhaustion of buying pressure.
The 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels align with resistance zones, providing targets for potential reversals.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Confluence:
Resistance Zone: The 0.84250-0.84473 region acts as a key reversal area marked by the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Support Zone: The 0.83247 level aligns with the 0.618 retracement, serving as the invalidation point for bullish setups.
Order Block Areas: The marked shaded regions reflect historical buying and selling activity that can trigger significant price reactions.
Volume Profile:
High-volume nodes indicate areas of significant interest and potential consolidation. Price reactions around these levels may signal breakouts or reversals.
Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs):
The chart features a swing failure pattern near 0.84473, suggesting that an attempt to break this high might lead to a reversal if rejected. This level should be monitored closely.
Step-by-Step Trading Plan:
Short Setup:
Entry: Consider short positions near 0.84250-0.84473, where confluence with Fibonacci and historical resistance exists.
Stop Loss: Place stops above 0.84473 to protect against a breakout.
Target Levels:
Initial target at 0.83850 (0.382 retracement).
Secondary target at 0.83247 (0.618 support).
Long Setup:
Entry: If price action consolidates and holds above 0.83850 without triggering the short scenario, a potential long opportunity may arise.
Stop Loss: Below 0.83247 (invalidation of the bullish scenario).
Target Levels: Look for a move towards 0.84473 and beyond, contingent on a break of the SFP.
Validation and Invalidation Points:
Bearish Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.84473 confirms the invalidation of a short bias.
Bullish Invalidation: If the price closes below 0.83247 and sustains this level, the bullish setup is invalidated.
Key Takeaways:
Volume and Order Flow: Watch for shifts in volume and the direction of order flow as they indicate potential bias changes.
Wave Completion: Ensure that Wave 5 aligns with structural resistance and volume divergence for high-conviction trade setups.
Risk Management: Always adhere to strict risk parameters, ensuring no more than 1-2% risk per trade.
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🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
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GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
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