Scenario Analysis of EUR/CHF 4H Chart

1. Market Structure
The market was previously in a downtrend but experienced a strong bullish breakout around early March.
Price surged upwards, breaking a key resistance zone (now acting as support).
The current price action appears to be forming a rising wedge, a potential reversal pattern.
2. Key Levels
Support Zone: Around 0.9500, which was previously resistance and now turned into a strong support.
Resistance Zone: Around 0.9650, where price is facing difficulty breaking above.
Current Price: 0.95986.
3. Chart Pattern - Rising Wedge
A rising wedge is visible, which is often a bearish reversal pattern.
Price is consolidating near the upper boundary of the wedge, showing signs of exhaustion.
If price breaks below the wedge, a bearish move towards the 0.9500 level is likely.
4. Confirmation Factors
EMA 50: The price is currently hovering around the 50-period EMA, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
Bearish Rejection Wicks: There are multiple rejection candles at the resistance zone, showing seller strength.
Breakout Zone: If the price breaks below the wedge and the gray support zone, it will confirm a bearish move.
5. Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the wedge and sustains above 0.9650, it could push towards 0.9700+.
Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below the wedge and the support zone, a drop towards 0.9500 or lower is expected.
Best Approach: Wait for a breakout confirmation before entering a trade.