This is nuts, or I'm nuts--or BOTH

11 Oca 2022

Maybe this is well known among the crypto community. I don't know. I'm kinda here in my own little bubble.

I was organizing and setting up a ginormous list of crypto charts when I noticed that there were a few odd coincidences about the 2021 rallies.

In my estimate, there were three major rallies last year (Spring, Summer, Fall) and two minor ones (January, December). Many--most--of the cryptos I was charting would start going on bullish rallies at the same time. Not much of a surprise there. Wherever Bitcoin goes, everyone follows.

I used the Date and Price Range tool to explore this curiosity. What I found interesting was that the rallies tended to start on the second-to-last week of the month. Not all of them did, but most did. The coins that followed these trends had been around for a while. New coins took a few months to find their sea legs, and then they follow the same flow. Some didn't have a rally in autumn. I kept seeing this pattern, so I set up a Google Sheet and crunched the numbers of 20 popular coins. Here was what I found.

Spring Rally Start - March 25 or 26 (37.5%) | April 25 or 26 (43.8%)
Summer Rally Start - July 21 (100%)
Autumn Rally Start - Sept 21 or 22 (16.6%) | Sept 29 (75%)

OTHER OBSERVATIONS
- Percentagewise, newer coins enjoyed greater gains than the more popular Bitcoin, Etherium, and Litecoin.
- For a majority of coins, the rallies lasted 40-50 days for summer and autumn rallies. I measured from the first to last green bars in definite reversals.

Out of the 20 that I checked, they ranked as follows:

SPRING RALLY TOP FIVE
MATIC 535.31%
LUNA 311.24%
XRP 274.79%
BNB 195.42%
DOGE 174.18%

SPRING RALLY BOTTOM FIVE
BTC 30.06%
ALGO 44.88%
AVAX 52.98%
ATOM 59.79%
ETH 62.41%

SUMMER RALLY TOP FIVE
SOL 737.22%
LUNA 638.88%
AVAX 531.77%
ATOM 382.08%
DOT 250.04%

SUMMER RALLY BOTTOM FIVE
BTC 76.76%
WBTC 79.69%
BNB 93.60%
DOGE 99.41%
UNI 109.44%

AUTUMN RALLY TOP FIVE

MATIC 175.74%
AVAX 152.27%
LUNA 118.76%
DOT 106.55%
SOL 100.17%

AUTUMN RALLY BOTTOM FIVE

UNI 41.97%
XRP 43.54%
DASH 60.07%
BTC 64.53%
LINK 64.95%

These were the percentage gains for the Spring, Summer, and Autumn Rallies. Those that didn't get rallies I just blanked them.

ATOM 59.79% 382.08% [--]
DOT 65.52% 250.04% 106.55%
LUNA 311.24% 638.88% 118.76%
BTC 30.06% 76.76% 64.53%
ALGO 44.88% 226.58% [---]
SOL 125.24% 737.22% 100.17%
LINK 105.31% 153.27% 64.95%
XRP 274.79% 162.94% 43.54%
WBTC [--] 79.69% 65.83%
ETH 62.41% 125.60% 73.54%
BNB 195.42% 93.60% 98.74%
LTC 73.74% 121.38% 87.54%
MATIC 535.31% 160.93% 175.74%
ADA 116.96% 180.54% [--]
AVAX 52.98% 531.77% 152.27%
DASH 135.27% 117.89% 60.07%
SUSHI [--] 133.88% [--]
DOGE 174.18% 99.41% [--]
UNI [--] 109.44% 41.97%

MY TAKEAWAYS
Maybe this is a psychological cycle. Many were expecting that January Bounce that the stock market usually gets, but that didn't happen. Crypto works on different cycles. So if this whackadoodle observation has any prophecy, anticipate seasonal rallies to start around the 21st to 29th of a month. Everyone's talking about Bitcoin and Etherium hitting major supports--I believe the supports that launched the Autumn Rally. If the rally starts, though, I wouldn't focus on the Crypto-Biggies like BTC and ETH. I'd watch SOL, AVAX, MATIC, and definitely LUNA.