INDEX:ETHUSD için without_worries tarafından Is Ethereum about to correct to 700 dollars?

Is Ethereum about to correct to 700 dollars?

There is growing evidence for it. On the above 10-day log growth chart price action has been riding the ‘mean’ log growth line for a little over 1 year now. Throughout this whole time price action trades within an ascending channel, a bear flag. Within this bearish channel a smaller bear flag is printing.

A measured move on the smaller bear-flag confirmation would see a 40% correction in price action.

A measured move on the larger bear-flag confirmation would see a 60% correction in price action, <700 dollars. This is a fascinating level for two reasons:

1) It would be a correction to the golden ratio as was with the 2019 correction.

2) It would be a correction to the lower log growth curve, which is expected before the next bull run FOR Ethereum.

Lastly there is the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart. Two significant events:

1) The GRM (Golden Ratio Multiplier) has now failed as support (green line), a bull market requires support.

2) Price action has exited a large bear-flag.

Is it possible price action keeps rising? Sure. A convincing break of 2300-2400 would void this outlook.

Is it probable price action keeps rising? No.

For the bulls, price action must break above 2300-2400 and hold it for a 2-3 weeks.

For the bears, a correction to 1750 and under is a green light.

It is not all bad news. Would you like to Time-warp back to January 2016 and buy Ethereum for $2? It is possible and no one is talking about it. Will say elsewhere.

Ww

Weekly ETH/BTC pair.

2-week ETH/BTC large bear flag confirmation

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Broken market structure since Jul 2022.

Not

Alarms popping off all over the place.

August 28th, mark that date down. If by this time the candle body currently printing is not undone and prints the full 2-week body under the medium line, price action WILL test the bottom of the channel, circa 700 dollars depending on month.

Not

A lot of pushback from the recent update. “You’re wrong”, “Never goes that low” Feeling the judgement.. it’s palpable.

It seems then a few folks are long..

Switching off the log growth curve makes the bear flag very clear to see. Lower highs lower lows, there is no trend reversal here. If candle bodies start closing under 1600, 700 is coming and would be something if it stopped there, 500 might be a better target.

4-day

There’s more.. the moving averages on the 3-day. Normally I do not pay attention to them but I know people do.

Notice the 3-day/200-day SMA curving downwards? Most would look at the crossing up of the 3-day/50-day SMA cross up. However it is the 200 that is more important at this moment. Look left. A moving average curving down like this is telling you something, do you know what it is?

The Blue arrows. Look left. If this were a bullish 3-day life cross price action would already be above 2000 or the 3-day/50-day SMA. Look left. Price action is far from bullish. It is rejecting the 3-day/50-day SMA. This is a HUGE red flag.

It does not matter the market. Stocks, crypto, commodities, the result will be the same.

Is it possible price action continues to move up from the macro low? Sure.

Is it probable? No.

Ww

Not

Price action must not close below 1600 for the last day of August. Should it do so, the forecast grows in strength by some margin.

Not

Price action on the 3-week chart has now printed a confirmation candle of the Gravestone DOJI candle before it. Look left. The last time Gaussian channel mean rejection printed price action went on to test the bottom of the channel, currently 900 dollars today. However it will likely be lower by the time that test prints.

The months of November / December should present a good opportunity.

3-week

Not

A candle body has begun to print under the bear flag pattern. IF by Monday 25th price action does not recover 1600, then the probability of correcting to 700 and below grows considerably.

2-week

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Not

72hrs until the new 2-week candle closes. Make no mistake what this means IF the bulls do not hold 1600. Capitulation.

2.week

Not

Multiple candles continue to close under the flag following confirmation. Very bearish.

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Excellent moment to exit

10hr

Not

A lot of folks asking if this idea is now void.

Is it void?

No.

Price go up. Idea must be wrong. However that’s not reason, that’s emotion.

Why is the idea not yet void?

Look left. The same 2-week chart since publishing continues to print the medium log growth curve as resistance. A two week candle must close above this resistance. Yes previous values stated as support and resistance in earlier posts may now be void as the curve rises with time.

2-week

Price action continues to trend in an upward channel. In of itself, this is bearish.

On that upward channel using the weekly chart there is bearish and bullish points of view.

First the bullish. Looking left to 2019 early 2020 price action tested the golden ratio twice before breaking through in mid-2020. (blue squares). At this time the 3rd test is underway. History suggests a breakout, right? What could go wrong? Have used the same flag, almost a near perfect fractal.

The bearish. In the 2020 flag price action had corrected 94%. More or less the same as every other alt-token on the market. Today many alt tokens have now corrected 90%. Ethereum in 2023 has corrected 75% so far. The full 90% correction takes price action under $500, which is where the bear flag points to.

weekly

The ETH.BTC pair on the 12-day chart seemingly confirms golden ratio resistance. This follows a break in market structure.

12-day

The signs are there..

Not

Notice the red candle printing under the mean log growth curve on the weekly chart??

The weekly candle cannot close like this on the weekly chart for price action to be bullish. Look left...

Not

Take profits at 2500. Will discuss elsewhere why.

Not

A “Spinning top” candle has printed on the 10-day chart. (chart and Description below). Essentially it informs you neither buyers nor sellers are in control of the market.

These candles are interesting from a physiological point of view. The primitive nature of our emotions is on full display here. As this tug of war plays out you should expect one course of action to follow, a significant move in price action.

Once the emotional tug of war is finished, the other side capitulates. Whether that is in the bull or the bear direction. Regardless of direction, the liquidity that entries the market on confirmation will take every participant by surprise.

Any clues which direction? Several.

Statistics first, my bread and butter. the majority of the time, i.e 70% of the time such a signal prints in a colour opposite to the previous candle, this indicates a trend reversal likelihood. For example, as shown in the orange circles:

1) Did can spinning top print Green or Red? Left to right in orange circles, GREEN, RED, RED, RED.

When a Green spinning top printed, the rally continues. If RED, my goodness people, look left ;-)

2) Second indication, stochastic RSI overbought or oversold? As in previous prints. Which is it now? Look at the cross down.

3) Some other indications, but I’ve spoken about them elsewhere aplenty.

Ww

What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick?
“A spinning top is a candlestick pattern with a short real body that's vertically centred between long upper and lower shadows. The candlestick pattern represents indecision about the future direction of the asset. It means that neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand.”

Source:
investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

10-day chart

Not

A high probability sell signal prints on the 2-day chart. It was May2021 the last time such a signal printed before a 60% collapse followed.
I know, this time is different..

2-day

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Final warning

An alarm just pinged on the Divergence for Many indicator with the first weekly close. 8 oscillators have confirmed negative divergence with price action on the weekly. You can download and install this indicator yourself. Setting it up correctly is important, default settings are not useful for macro shift identification.

A 70%+ correction printed the last time so many oscillators confirmed negative divergence. Will this time be different? The bulls commenting below certainly think so.

Weekly

Not

The ETH-BTC pair has now printed 5x 2-week candles below broken market structure. Look at the latest candle to print, this is a huge warning of things to come, look left.

2-week

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A strong bearish divergence has now printed on the 8 day dollar chart. This divergence prints as the BTC pair continues the break in market structure. A 70% correction takes price action to $700.

Nothing has been re-drawn or changed on this chart since first publication.

8 day

Not

Price action has returned to the underside of the bar flag where it was previously rejected at the same time Stochastic RSI crosses down 80 as RSI crosses down 70. Look left.

10-day

Not

Nothing on this 2-week chart drawing below has been changed since it was first presented in the main chart above. It is interesting to see price action now finds resistance in the same upward trending channel that first established itself in May 2022.

If the recent uptrend is to continue a support confirmation of 2500 is first required (the black horizontal line). This will be a good long entry for bulls.

2-week

Latterly on the weekly ETH.btc pair a Death cross is approaching following a break of market structure. In addition a significant bearish divergence is printing. The strongest divergence to ever print in the history of ETH.btc pair price action.

Now I’m sure, judging by the many comments of disagreement, this comes across a something you don’t want to accept. Regardless the facts of the chart are informing you of something to come.

A recent weekly death cross on the btc pair was with the popular token ENJ.btc, Price action dropped 70% after the cross.

It is important to say not all alt-tokens are printing as such, not at all. However a small number are that includes Ethereum. It is a considerable risk to ignore this data.

Ww

Not

So far price action has climbed all of 1500 dollars since this idea was published. For many this price action move has voided the idea. Many public ideas are long, very long.

Is $700 still in contention?

Yes.

Why? Look left. All the answers you'll ever need are found here.

On the 10-day chart below price action prints and confirms a hanging man candlestick. This print occurs in the rising channel we’ve been tracking since this idea was first published. It is a technical lower high on this time frame.

1) Notice Stochastic RSI is now crossing down 80 following this bearish signal? Red circles.

2) Notice the failed RSI support?

The one chart very few have given attention to, which has been repeated throughout this idea, is the performance of Ethereum against Bitcoin. In earlier posts we have shown broken market structure against Bitcoin (ETH.BTC) was confirmed.

Now we have a significant confirmation on the monthly chart. On the monthly chart below ETH.BTC has:

1) Exited the rising support channel.
AND
2) Confirmed resistance with the close of March.

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RSI support on the 10 day chart (original chart above and below) has failed, that is confirmed. This is also true for the BTC pair.

The RSI support fails as price action prints a double top.

10 day

Not

This chart remains unchanged since it was drawn so many months ago. A high probability signal printed at 3700, which was right under the bear flag resistance.

For the bull case, this is just a bull market correction, as before. Yellow arrows.

weekly chart

However the ETH.btc pair…

The 2 month ETH.btc chart below prints a new candle in 13 days. It would confirm a candle pattern recently discussed on the bearish Litecoin idea “Falling three methods candlestick pattern”. You do not want to see this confirm if you’re bullish.

Lastly the yellow arrow on the btc pair below (November 2020)
corresponds with the first yellow arrow on the dollar chart above. Notice how different the market structure is on the BTC pair when the dollar chart was bullish? Is that the same now?

2 Month

Not

May 20th is a date to watch. On the 10 day chart price action have confirmed broken structure. If 3000 does not hold by May 20th then a re-test of 2100 is very probable. Do not open long positions under resistance as shown, wait for confirmation.

Not

Still bearish on ETH since publishing at 2000 dollars.

Notice the triple top on the 2-week chart as RSI support fails? Price action really needs to test the bottom of this channel before I can get bullish on price action.

Not

The 2 week chart will just not quit. Price action rejects the same resistance sketched when this idea was first published around 2k.

The does not stop the ETF rumours however. "If an ETF is approved WW do you think your $700 idea will be void?" This is honestly how many people are making decisions with their money right now.

On the 2 week chart below a clear double top has printed. However give your attention to the Stochastic RSI now crossing down 20. (Blue arrows).

Now consider the Stochastic RSI after failed RSI support. Now look at price action, what follows next?

2 week

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Not

Support has failed from the uptrend that began around 2k when this idea was published. Both slow and fast stochastic RSI have crossed down 20. Look left. Blue arrows.

The ETF has very much failed, just like the Bitcoin ETF. These products that are greeted with much fan fair are actually killing both Blockchains with the off chain volume, just as with the Gold ETF. Gold would be priced over 10k an ounce were it not for the ETFs.
The concentration of miners is also alarming since ETFs came into existence. Both blockchains have never been more centralised than they are now, which is kind of ironic considering on why they were created in the first place.

2 week

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support failure

Not

The overall $700 idea will almost be a certainty should price action break through support as shown with the red arrow on the 10 day chart below.

10 day

Should price action confirm the following 8hr bear flag below to 1800, it will confirm the break of structure on the 10 day chart above.

8hr

Not

Has come to my attention price action prints multiple candles under the flag and log growth curve. Very bearish. Bulls needs to return price action into the flag to void this signal.

Not

As the year comes to a close we find price action on Ethereum at the same level it began the year, $2500.

Bulls remain resilient however as S&P 500 rallies 25% in the same period.

A follower reminded me how the two follow each other (hence the update).
Facts and emotions rarely tell the same story.

Not

Price action continues to climb the ascending channel on a slow grind to nowhere exciting but past resistance.

A breakout on this test is expected to $5700
After that, resumption of the bearish channel.

For most of 2024 price action has traded in the same area. March and May of 2024 saw the same price action as is seen today. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 25%.

Crypto is boring!

Not

Price action confirms resistance for the 3rd time?!
And it does this when it was overbought?

How can a revisit to below not be possible?

Not

If price action fails to close above 3k in January, it will be an absolute slaughter fest for bulls in the months ahead.

Look left, the bearish divergences are as strong as November 2021. Market structure confirming double top resistance with 2021 highs. What more evidence is required to demonstrate a re-test the base around $700- is needed before starting new uptrend?

Not

Ethereum has broken through the medium regression channel support. Look left, what happens next isn't pretty.

Not

Bulls, you have 5 day to put this candle body back inside the flag otherwise it is a one way ticket to $700.

Despite the criticisms this idea attracts it was forecast 18 months ago in the face of calls to 20k and beyond.

Not

Price action confirms on the weekly a break of market structure.
Prepare yourself for a hideous collapse in price action.
Remember, this idea was forecast over 18 months ago!

without_worries

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Weblink: patreon.com/withoutworries

Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

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