Ethereum - bearish divergence

2 Haz 2021

Price action has returned a massive 4500% since the lows of March 2020. You have 46x your initial investment had you bought in back then.

There’s a huge amount of bullish sentiment calling for 8k, 18k Ethereum - while that may occur in the future, price action right now is looking very bearish. Why?

On the 2-week chart above:

1) A 6-year resistance / support trend line was recently broken to the upside and then quickly rejected. A fake out. This trend line is important, look left. Previous rejections from this trend line resulted in 40% & 70% corrections, respectively.

2) A bearish engulfing candle was printed following the break out. Remember this is a 2-week chart, these time frames are significant.

3) The oscillators: RSI, Stochastic RSI, & MFI are all printing lower highs as price action printed a higher high. This is regular bearish divergence. You can ignore one oscillator but all three printing negative divergence is not to be ignored.

Finally there is the 1-month chart below. Last month a perfect spinning top candle was printed. Neither buyers or sellers have control of the market, classic indecision. These candles are powerful when confirmed. It would make a lot of sense (whichever way you are long or short) to wait for the following monthly candle.

1st target $1800

2nd target $1200

2 Haz 2021

Not

I should add - a close on the 2-weekly above $4200 voids this idea.

20 Haz 2021

Not

-20% correction so far. However that might be the end of the road for this short idea if the 21-week EMA (yellow line) holds as shown on the 10-day chart below.

Additionally the MFI just printed continued support, a pleasant surprise. This is what the bulls need.

I'd not be short anymore on this idea until confirmation of support.

21 Haz 2021

İşlem aktif

1st target almost reached.

Price action approaching the 200-day SMA. Do not automatically expect support, wait until confirmation.

Failure to support $1800 means a one way ticket to $1200.

13 Tem 2021

İşlem aktif

Going to add a 3rd target $860

The 3-day chart below is looking very bearish indeed. This is a not a reflection on all alt-coins, just Ethereum.

The 21-week EMA (yellow line) has confirmed resistance. There is the nested head and shoulders pattern with a break of the neckline suggesting a target of $860.
I don't understand why so many tradingview ideas are long with popular youtubers calling for 5k - 10k Ethereum - ignore them.



There something else interesting - as mentioned above this is not a reflection on all alt-coins, if I pick something at random... BEL/ETH, what is Bella?? no idea. Have look, oversold against the Ether pair with 'incredible buy' lit up as price action finds support on the 21-day EMA.



Another random pick SNT / ETH - same story as BEL, oversold, 'incredible buy', with support on the 21-day EMA.

Summary? Ethereum looks very bearish in the weeks / months ahead against the dollar and many other alt coins.

13 Tem 2021

Not

Something else worth adding. Circled in purple on the same 3-day chart are the 12-day EMA crossovers of the 21-week EMA. Look left. Last crossover in March 2020 marked the bottom of the sell off. The previous three crossovers were -50% (August 2019), -88% (March 2018), -40% (November 2016).

Be careful!