ETH into Classic Bull Trap Zone

5 Mar

This trade didn't go too well for me in BTC but today's another day and I'm a gluten for punishment.

Still have BTC shorts on. Largely because I'm noting the indices moves and think BTC may correlate to risk and if the indices are making local breaks BTC may be a catchup trade. Not as comfortable with it as I was a few days ago, but I still think the BTC rejection is viable. At this point I am stopping out on any new highs though in case something I'd not like happens.

Inside the context of me thinking BTC is still a good, albeit nervy, short - I'm very interested in shorting the ETH 76. Like the idea more than shorting BTC.

5 Mar

Not

I've posted the system stop in the OP but I usually look to take a few stops/limit in higher if the simple 76 level doesn't work.

In times it works it improves the net return and when all trades lose you lose a bit less than you were going to anyway. Here's original stop.

if this hits I'll try again close to 86 and/or with some sort of harmonic.

5 Mar

Not

Indices have continued to sell and BTC is filling pending head and shoulders. See updates of this idea.

5 Mar

Not

Strong rejection from ETH here I'd consider good chance of a big tell.

5 Mar

Not

Stops to even now. We're at supports.

Holding to see if wee break but if the bear move fails it'd probably be here.

5 Mar

Not

The indices mentioned in the OP were a much cleaner trade. But if and when this comes, it'd probably be a strong yank.

This much confidence does not build into a tame bear move. If its a bear move, it's going to be ruthless.

10 Mar

İşlem aktif

Even stops hit. As mentioned in earlier update I've waited for a head fake pattern to try again.

Next attempt now.

12 Mar

İşlem aktif

>if this hits I'll try again close to 86 and/or with some sort of harmonic.

86 entry taken.

Biggest try now. Always size biggest closest to failure points.

19 Mar

Not

ETH has broken the 61 fib.

Continues to be very consistent with a bull trap.

20 Mar

Not

ETH is now retesting the 61 fib.

If there's a big rejection of this level we can easily drop to the 50 fib quickly. Over 25% down from the 61 fib.

Would often be a classic tell of a bull trap if there's a big 61 rejection.

Important spot.

3 Nis

Not

ETH under the 61 again.

Not a good look for your bull market.

6 Eyl

Not

ETH is not doing well. Serious break close to happening on weekly charts.