ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Range Bound Above Key Support.

12 Eyl 2017

ETHUSD Update: The 310 buy trigger has been activated and price has retraced back into the support zone. At the moment this market is range bound and in order to show progress, the 313 to 325 resistance zone has to be taken out.

It is situations like this that especially require having a well defined plan and knowing your risk. I am long from 310, but not with an uncomfortable position. As long as this market can stay above the 276 support, it is still proving some stability. If price breaks below, which is possible, that will open the door for a revisit to the 260 and 230 support zones which I have been writing about.

My plan is to get out if price pushes below the mid 270s, and wait for stability to return before doing anything else. And if price pushes higher instead, I will look to add to my long position upon a break of the 330 resistance. Like I have written about before, I may not get the best prices, but I would rather have momentum going my way.

If you are a long term investor, and plan to hold and accept the risks involved, then building a position as price goes lower isn't unreasonable since none of the major supports like 208 have been taken out. If instead you are looking to capitalize on short term fluctuations. then you have to stick to your plan. This is why I calculate my risk/reward and my levels to add to the position if the market offers the opportunity and also why I add while momentum is in my favor and not against me.

An interesting note is that the two zones that price is stuck between, the 282 to 293 support and the 313 to 330 resistance happen to both be .618 areas relative to the recent bullish and bearish price swings. This is very typical of range bound price action. Also the ETHBTC market has not made a new high or new low, but I watch carefully because clues can appear on this chart first.

In summary, price needs to choose a direction and soon. A break below the 268 low will confirm bearish momentum and most likely push prices into the lower supports while a break above the 330 resistance zone will confirm bullish momentum and most likely retest the 350 area. The first sign of this would be a break above the 300 level. The big picture still has a bullish bias, so that may help price action along a more bullish path. The important thing to remember in situations like this, whether you are in a position or not, is the market must choose, not me or you. There is an element of randomness to all financial markets, and during times of indecision, there is little else we can do. Once the market offers a clearer picture, then it is all a matter of adjusting to the new information.

Comments and questions welcome.