Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on SEP 14, 2022

CPI data landed last night with a slower-than-expected decline and a rebound in both core inflation and monthly rates. The market plunged with it, and a 100 basis point rate hike became a possibility for market discussion.

With BTC back to 20,000, the decline is not over, but it is getting closer to a shift in our thinking. As things stand now, investors waiting for a bottom before the end of this month can fully enter the first batch of positions.

Because the CPI has little to do with the rise and fall of the market, the CPI affects the expectations of the strength of interest rate hikes. Interest rate hikes are the key to influencing the market. And 100 basis points is unlikely to appear, the probability of landing at the end of the month or 75. market pessimism is likely to be excessive. If the end of the month finally announces a 75 basis point rate hike, there is a possibility of becoming positive.

But here, to turn long, leverage must be low or directly consider the spot. The position has to be split even if it's not a periodic investment. You don't need to divide each position as thinly as you would with a fixed deposit. It makes sense to split it into roughly four parts, each to be used for the September rate meeting. The subsequent possible new lows and the eventual breakout of the market from the bear market down channel are a few events.

Tomorrow is the expected ETH merger landing event. As analyzed many times before, the ETH merger is not materially beneficial, and the only direct change brought about is a lower inflation rate. However, the switch to POS will not enhance the intrinsic value of ETH. POS is just paving the way. So still can not be seen as good, but also to be clear that the subsequent re-emergence of the decline will be the layout of the next round of bull market opportunities.