$ETHBTC failed multiyear breakout.

To understand the investor positioning in the Crypto markets we must understand the BTC values of the Altcoins. In terms of USD the valuations might go up but if we look at the pair trade of the Altcoins relative to BTC we can relay understand the flow among the various Cryptocurrencies.

Let’s understand the relationship between BTC and ETH, the second largest Crypto and the largest one in the TOTAL2 index. Below we have plotted a multiple year ETHBTC chart for reference. IN the previous cycle the ETHBTC char bottomed @ 0.02 and then ETHBTC had a bull run where the chart topped out on 0.09. This was during the rush of Crypto Punks and the likes which were traded using $ETH. At the same time the RSI of ETHBTC also peaked at 90. Since then, it has been bleeding slowly.

The ETHBTC has suffered a series of lower lows and lower highs forming a bearish pattern. The RSI also never regained in strength and has also been forming lower highs and lower lows. This April the ETHBTC touched the last cycle low of 0.02. Since then, it has tried a bounce back but failed again at 0.025. My prediction is that the ETHBTC will struggle to break out of the 0.236 Fib retracement levels plotted on the previous cycles Highs to the Lows.

Verdict : ETHBTC looks bearish on medium to long term. Short term bounce back possible to 0.0375.