ETH/BTC - BTC first, ETH next?

5 Mar 2024

BTC leads, the rest follows?

This is ETH against BTC, not USD!

So as long as BTC doesn't do a big dump, it sure looks like ETH might push next. With BTC being close to ATH and ETH still missing another 30% just to get to ATH (in USD), that does seem plausible enough.

Going by this projection though and assuming at least a stable BTC at the current levels (midterm), that would put ETH significantly higher in USD value from the current price of 3.7k.

28 Nis 2024

Not

Followed the orange path so far:



Nice reaction there, though too early to call. Always a chance for another sweep of the lows.

ETH/USDT is looking interesting too though:

17 May 2024

Not

Still the orange path, now with a hit of the lower channel bound (in log) right at the 61.8 retracement level.



Comes with some noteworthy bullish RSI divergence on the weekly.

21 May 2024

Not

Beautiful starting move sending ETH from ~3k to ~3.7k

8 Haz 2024

Not

ETH/BTC looks like a finished move that's currently correcting.

ETH/USDT, fibonacci channel:



A hold of 3.5k - 3.6k would look nice.

Also comes with the vegas wave on the 4h:



Nice hit of a pitchfork median too:

1 Tem 2024

Not

Not much to add for the ETH/BTC chart:



Still looking good, correction could be done or give one lower low before going higher.

So while ETH held well against BTC, ETH/USDT did lose the geometry points shown in the last update.

Countwise, sticking to the bull cases for now (there's always a bear case...), we either made a deep wave 4 (or 1-2 1-2 if you want to be more bullish):



Alternatively we could be still working on some higher degree wave 4 (orange) or creating a diag wave 5 (green, too early to fixate on that):



Some geometry that held for now, 0.382 level of these fib channels (blue):



0.5 level of this channel and vegas wave on the daily:

1 Ağu 2024

Not

ETH/BTC followed the orange path (first image, last update) so far:

8 Ağu 2024

Not

This one became a bit more difficult to read now. The ETH/BTC chart made a new local low, but the overall view of a double zigzag correction still works. Calling the Y finished with confidence would certainly be difficult though. We did hit the lower channel in arithmetic view:



Staying below 0.0465 certainly puts some lower targets on the table (0.035 / 0.03):



While I'm not overly concerned with the BTC/USDT chart yet (I very much like where we held for now), the ETH/USDT chart became rather less pretty.

Where we bounced:



As for the count it's hard to ignore more bearish options now, like this:



Even assuming some kind of triangle wave 4, I still wouldn't be surprised if we went lower yet:



A count that still could lead at least close to ATH, if not above (whether as corrective or as a diag [ending or leading?]):