ES & SPY Outlook

2 May

Trading Plan for ES and SPY based on Downtrend and Key Levels
Overall Market Context:

We are currently in a confirmed downtrend for ES and SPY since their respective all-time highs.
Major resistance sits at 5150, with major support at 5033 and 4965.
Trading Strategies:

Short Positions:

Primary Entry: Look for bearish price action (e.g., bearish engulfing patterns, failed breakouts above resistance) near the 5130-5140 hourly supply zone. This zone has not been tested yet and could offer a strong selling opportunity.
Secondary Entry: If the price fails to break through 5150 resistance convincingly, consider shorting on a retest of this level.
Targets: Aim for the first major support level at 5033. Aggressive traders can target the next support level at 4965.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above the 5150 resistance level to limit potential losses if the market breaks higher unexpectedly.
Long Positions:

Low-Confidence Opportunity: If the price reaches the 5025-5040 demand zone (previously tested twice), consider a long position with a tight stop-loss. This area has shown some support in the past and might offer a potential bounce.
High-Confidence Opportunity: Wait for a clear break and confirmation above the major resistance at 5150. This would signal a potential trend reversal and offer a more reliable long entry point.