S&P500 Close to the most critical test of the Bear Market.

The S&P500 index (SPX) broke last week above the August 16 Lower Highs trend-line, following the impressive drop on October's CPI and has almost fulfilled our +5.18% bullish projection of 4040:

The price is now approaching the all important 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the price and form the last top on the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line on August 16. A break above it would be the first since April 21 and undoubtedly, the first sign towards a long-term bullish break-out into a recovery from this Bear Market.

Technically the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line is a little higher than the 1D MA200, exactly where the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is, so we can set a tolerance level there. A break above it, we'll take as a bullish break-out buy and target 4328 (Resistance 2).

If the index is yet again rejected within this 1D MA200 - 1W MA50 Resistance Zone, then it remains (until further notice) within the Bear Cycle but the downtrend would be confirmed by a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will initially target the 3643 Support (1). Note that the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) has been technically the best place to buy these Bear Market rallies on their latest stages.


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