We've now traded in a range for a long time and this weakens the case for the bull trap with a harmonic D leg. While it's hard to refine down to a science of any sorts - usually the turns in a harmonic are crisp and sharp - this is what creates the W (Or M) structures.
To create the W structure the market has to make two "V" shaped lows. When there's a prolonged range this V shape becomes impossible, and I find most of the time this happens the extension for the harmonic will not come. Breaks are more common.
Any time we have a prolonged range it's important to be aware of spike out risk. I'm short from 3950 w/ stop 39570 but would also be interested in shorting 3990 w/ stop 4010 if we spiked up.
Bears need to close under 3946 to break macro supports and I think a close under 3910 firmly suggests the bear is in play.
Update to
To create the W structure the market has to make two "V" shaped lows. When there's a prolonged range this V shape becomes impossible, and I find most of the time this happens the extension for the harmonic will not come. Breaks are more common.
Any time we have a prolonged range it's important to be aware of spike out risk. I'm short from 3950 w/ stop 39570 but would also be interested in shorting 3990 w/ stop 4010 if we spiked up.
Bears need to close under 3946 to break macro supports and I think a close under 3910 firmly suggests the bear is in play.
Update to
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.