ES daily 03/13: bears prepared for last push?

15 Mar 2022

For those of you who followed my daily ideas, you know since last Monday/Tuesday, I have been looking down and expecting a long lasting bottom before Fed meeting. Today market indeed broke Friday's low and also the trendline support, but it did hold that 4138 low printed last week. If bears are following my primary route, then we should hold this trendline support as resistance now, and we should start the final push either tonight or tomorrow morning toward first support zone of 4100~4140 to complete , and below that (v) of (5) of (C). If that's also broken, then 4000~4050 would be my ideal target for (5) of (C) and wave (5) will be in 3 waves instead of 5 waves. However, if we can break that trendline before tomorrow noon and especially above this morning high, then be prepared we will simply do some consolidation before Fed, and we can either go big up or down on Fed day.

Other than the chart, there are some other things that could help to determine where we go next. Gold price has been going down since Mar 8, and stay down today, this signals the relief of fear. CL is following the similar route and probably is telling the same thing. But RTY today is leading down, which is I always want to see when I have bearish bias. Also over the weekend and today, US is threatening China to face consequences if it help Russia to evade sanctions, which I think China will indeed do that, this could lead to the secondary sanction against China and further escalate Ukraine crisis, if this story is developing, there would be very strong pressure to the downside for market. Please be noted, Friday is quad witching day, which is a very bearish biased day last year, and there is no reason I would assume any change for the coming one, so best chance for sustained rally would probably have to wait until next week.