ES Analyses (Sep 1–5), Fundamental, Key Zones, Setups

Short holiday week. U.S. cash equities are closed Mon Sep 1 for Labor Day. ES trades a holiday schedule and then normal hours from Tue.  

Key releases (ET):
• Tue Sep 2, 10:00 — ISM Manufacturing (first business day).  
• Thu Sep 4, 8:15 — ADP Employment Report.  
• Thu Sep 4, 8:30 — Weekly jobless claims. 
• Thu Sep 4, 10:00 — ISM Services (third business day). 
• Fri Sep 5, 8:30 — Nonfarm Payrolls (Employment Situation). 

Plan to sit out the first 10 minutes around each print.

Big picture

I’m treating 6512–6516 as the week’s decision zone. Acceptance above it opens 6533–6535 → 6554. Lose 6454 on a confirmed close and the door opens to 6418. While above 6418, I keep a neutral-to-bullish bias. (Levels are from my charts.)

Key levels I’m trading around

Overhead liquidity
• 6501.25 pivot
• 6512–6516 prior supply and decision zone
• 6533–6535 H1 1.272 extension
• 6554 H1 1.618 extension

Support
• 6490 continuation pivot
• 6484 / 6479 micro supports
• 6472 HVN shelf · 6465.25 pivot
• 6456 prior low · 6454 fail-safe
• Guardrail: 6418

Playbook (casual, but A++ rules still apply)

30m trend aligned, 15m momentum-on-structure, 5m close to confirm. Risk 6–8 pts. TP1 ≥15 pts. No trades during data prints.

1) Continuation LONG above 6490
Look for a 15m close above 6490, quick check that bids are holding >6484, then a 5m confirmation to enter 6489–6492.
• SL: ~6485
• TP1: 6506 (+15) → scale
• TP2: 6512–6516, TP3: 6533–6535
• Invalidation: 15m bearish close back under 6484

2) Rejection SHORT at 6512–6516
If we poke the zone and print a 15m bearish close <6508, I want a 5m confirm to work 6508–6514 short.
• SL: 6517–6519
• TP1: 6493–6496 (+15)
• TP2: 6484 → 6472, TP3: 6465 → 6456
• Invalidation: 30m acceptance >6516

3) Breakdown SHORT below 6454
If a 15m bar settles <6454 and retest fails, I’ll use 6454–6457 for entry.
• SL: 6460–6462
• TP1: 6439 (+15)
• TP2: 6418, TP3: 6405–6395
• Invalidation: Swift reclaim >6462

Management notes

Trade windows 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. Scale half at TP1. Move stop to breakeven only after structure breaks or a 15m/30m close through TP1. I don’t add fresh longs straight into 6512–6516 unless we’ve got 30m acceptance.