Bearish Scenario

I was just dawning and saw some patterns showing up, there are some possible catalysts if there is recessed earnings and a late fed pivot . There are also some people talking about budget concerns and debt ceiling.
all over reddit people are saying the bull market is back on. I think it may be a trap.
I am watching if we can confidently break above the red line of resistance and then retest it as support. We may need some good news to keep up the rally this week.