SPX - LO'r...HI'r?

30 Ara 2019

BLUF: Happy New Year...Almost!

Questions:
Will the 50 cross the 200 MA again?
Will yields drive the market to New Highs?
When will the FED Repo Liquidity stop? What will the effects be?
Is a "Melt-UP" in the cards or WTF?

Who FOOKIN Knows...JAN will set the tone for the rest of 2020...Looking for new HI's in JAN? IF NOT? Then odds are High for a "GoldiLocks-Sideways 2020" IF SO? Then odds are High for a 1st QTR 2020 Correction w/New Highs to end an "Election-Year-2020!!! w/Record-Breaking-Deficit-Spending!!!

HEAD SHOTs ONLY...Lets See who is still standing in the End!

I repeat....Do we really care about the difference between “Malice” or “Carelessness”….If we are careless does malice even matter!

Razor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
Extrapolate Out the BullShit
Assess the Environment We are In
Digress for a Most/Better Strategy

30 Ara 2019

Not

Reads:
What are the possibilities regarding a potential ‘normalization’ of liquidity post-turn?  The stock market will likely have a negative reaction.  In terms of bonds, the prospect of less certain funding might also stifle some enthusiasm.  Though commodities could also be pressured, they will likely outperform stocks as a class. 
What if the Fed finds that it can’t step back from repo operations due to fears of financial dislocations?  In this case, stocks could see a more aggressive ‘melt-up’, but the dollar would likely fall further and gold would benefit. 
It seems as if gold might be the safest harbor no matter was happens in the beginning of 2020.

removal-of-liquidity-insurance

The Federal Reserve conducts its last term repo operation of the year today.  The previous three were undersubscribed.  There is still some pressure in the system for the turn, but it seems within the ranges that are regarded as normal.  The Financial Times reports on how some bank practices have evolved, such as the use of "total return swaps" and encouraging clients to use "sponsored repos," that are centrally cleared. 

the-greenback-remains-soggy-while-china.html
The irony in all this is that despite the puny dividend yield, it still compares well with US sovereign yield. The 10-year Treasury yield ended 3Q at 1.68 percent. Rates have gone up since, with last Friday at 1.87 percent. This is still less than what S&P 500 companies are currently yielding. At the end of 3Q, these companies were obviously yielding much more than what 10-year notes were yielding. As Chart 4 shows, this does not usually occur.

Stocks in general are a risky asset, but because 10-year notes and 30-year bonds are not offering much in the way of yield, stocks are being bought for yield, putting upward pressure on the price. The S&P 500, which ended 3Q at 2977, ended last Friday at 3240.02.

hedgopia.com/despite-record-sp-500-dividends-yield-stagnant-but-better-than-10-year-t-yield/

30 Ara 2019

Not

HMMMMM....Squaring the Books UP...TBD!

30 Ara 2019

Not

What Gives First....TBD!