ES daily 02/17: Bulls at last stand
For bulls, good news is the possibility of 0.50% rate increase in March has significantly reduced last few days. And the bad news are all from Ukraine issue, which I think is a total nonsense, but obviously most market participants take it very seriously. Every a bit of even slightly possible Russian aggression will instantly drop the market. But assuming it cools down in the coming days, then there are lots of fuel to pump the market to 4640~4680 and even 4700+ next week.
From wave structure, we already have double top around 4585, and then double top at 4480~4485 range, a sustained break below Monday low of 4354 would be extremely bearish to me. Although we still have theoretical support of 4300, imo, if we lose 4350, we will see Jan low range retested, so bulls are now at their last stand. With today's low, it finished a butterfly pattern, so maybe we will go directly from here, but whether there will be more bad news overnight/tomorrow to break it, only God knows. For now, I still have my primary route as going up to 4640~4680 next, but I will always keep hedge on, as market already proved how volatile it can be, especially when market is basically controlled by Ukraine news...
From wave structure, we already have double top around 4585, and then double top at 4480~4485 range, a sustained break below Monday low of 4354 would be extremely bearish to me. Although we still have theoretical support of 4300, imo, if we lose 4350, we will see Jan low range retested, so bulls are now at their last stand. With today's low, it finished a butterfly pattern, so maybe we will go directly from here, but whether there will be more bad news overnight/tomorrow to break it, only God knows. For now, I still have my primary route as going up to 4640~4680 next, but I will always keep hedge on, as market already proved how volatile it can be, especially when market is basically controlled by Ukraine news...
Feragatname
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