ES (SPY, SPX) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 15)

Context
Price is currently positioned just below a light supply band and above a cluster of intraday supports. I’m planning for a balance-to-break day: either a push through the overhead resistance or a drop back into yesterday’s lower range.

Event Windows (volatility timing only)
• London: 02:00–05:00 ET
• NY AM: 09:30–11:00 ET
• NY PM: 13:30–16:00 ET (watch for afternoon headlines/ Fed summaries)

(Use these as timing windows; trade the levels & structure.)

Playbook Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15m→5m→1m)

1) A++ Continuation LONG — 6718–6725 → 6740–6748
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6725, 5m pullback holds, 1m HL entry.
Invalidation: below 15m trigger wick / ≈6712.
Targets: TP1 6740–6748, TP2 6790–6800 (runner).
Notes: Only take first clean acceptance; avoid chasing if it “pop-and-fails.”

2) A+ First-Touch FADE SHORT — 6740–6748
Trigger: Sweep into 6740–6748, 5m re-close back inside, 1m LH entry.
Invalidation: through ≈6750–6752 with 15m body hold.
Targets: TP1 6725→6700, TP2 6689 (runner to 6666 if pressure persists).

3) A Bounce LONG — 6666 / 6658–6660
Trigger: Stop-run flush into 6666 (or 6658–6660) and instant reclaim; 1m confirmation, then 5m hold.
Invalidation: clean 15m body below 6658.
Targets: TP1 6689, TP2 6700, TP3 6718–6725.

4) A++ Breakdown SHORT — 6666 → 6623
Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6666, retest fails, 1m LH entry.
Invalidation: back above 6666 on a 15m close.
Targets: TP1 6623–6625, TP2 6593.

===

Session Checklist
• Start with the 6700 pivot: who controls opening drive?
• At 6718–6725, decide between acceptance (trend) vs rejection (fade).
• Respect 6666 on first touch for a bounce attempt; flip bias only on 15m acceptance below.
• If TP1 hits, take size off and protect the runner; don’t trail before TP2.

===

Bias Summary
• Above 6725: constructive, looking for 6740–6748 → 6790–6800.
• Between 6700 and 6725: rotational; trade the edges.
• Below 6689: sellers pressing; eyes on 6666.
• Accepted below 6666: opens 6623–6593 path.



Good trading. Manage risk; two attempts per level, max.