S&P 500 E-mini Vadelileri
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The Trump Pump and Dump

Markets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time.

At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December.

Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year.

Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025:

Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn.

Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off.

Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets.

Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence.

Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets.

Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight.

Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system.

End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January.

Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity.

All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures.

Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market.

Only time will tell..

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I would also like to present the bullish case in the instance that this was simply a bear trap below 6000, and it will follow the reclaim of 6000 on ES with volume confirmation as the reversal to bring this index back to the highs

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İşlem aktif
s/r Flip time to long the sp500

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İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi
Stopped out on the long, looking for more clarity this week to see if we can reclaim the 6000 range

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Coming into the Trump Gap zone here, will be looking for new long trades at the zone

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Tomorrows trade setup for me looks quite clear, hold above this zone can be the potential start to a new trend.

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Looks like the bottom is in, exactly as planned

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Feragatname