Bearish Divergence. Pullback Pending

16 May

Bullish long term on S&P of course. This idea is shorter term only and I am not even taking a position. Developed bear div on a full week scale. I think a decent pullback will happen over the next week or couple weeks. Then we resume bigger picture upward movement

16 May

İşlem aktif

The 1hr bear div just invalidated on the latest RSI push... BUT look at the 15M chart. The bear div exists for the entire weekly move still and is not invalidated. I don't think the pullback will be anything major maybe 5700 level at the end of it then re assess if it's actually playing out

18 May

Not

After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1. It’s the first time in over a century that all three major agencies—S&P, Fitch, and now Moody’s—have removed the U.S. from their top-tier rating. S&P downgraded in 2011, and Fitch followed in 2023. In both past instances, the S&P 500 pulled back ~10%, then rallied to new highs. History tends to rhyme.

This downgrade seems more like convenient timing to justify an upcoming pullback. It doesn't fundamentally change anything. Big picture, QE will continue to push assets higher.

Bitcoin popped today (sunday) after Michael Saylor announced another buy, reclaiming local highs. However, the move happened on low volume across major exchanges—doesn’t feel strong. This zone remains tricky to call. A short-term cooldown or flush to shake out overleveraged longs from last week would make sense before resuming the trend higher.

Expecting BTC and the S&P 500 to reach new all-time highs after this correction—if it materializes. The length and depth of the pullback are unknown; it’ll need to be assessed in real time.

Futures open at 6 PM EST tonight—might get the first clue on market direction if there is a gap.

19 May

Not

Headline 3 hours ago.
"U.S. Futures Sink After Moody’s Downgrade"

news always giving a topic to point the finger at and induce more panic. convenient like we said. if you didnt sell anything or short then be patient. respect the bleed. then we're going to buy the dip or add to holdings.

21 May

Not

Patience. Respect the bleed.

23 May

Not

5756.5 Low as of 8:24AM EST 5/26/2025 .... Almost filled the 5700 gap as discussed. beautiful play out on the bearish divergence

23 May

Not

This is a good place to scale out of a short if you had one. otherwise, I would not long yet unless you trying for a 10-20 point scalps in and out today. Otherwise, longer term entries, I would hold off. Continue to respect the bleed for medium / long term swing entries.