ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis Week-Ahead (Oct 20th - 24th)

Market Structure Overview

Price has shown a robust rebound from last week's discount levels, now trading back near the 6,720 area following a swift flush and subsequent V-shaped recovery.

Currently, we remain capped under the supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795, which represents the previous swing-high levels. As long as we trade below this resistance, our primary strategy will be to sell into strength and buy on dips within the established range, rather than pursuing breakouts.

On the hourly chart, key equilibrium is noted around the 6,701 to 6,705 range; this serves as the pivotal point around which price action is currently oscillating.

Setups (Level-KZ style)

Reclaim-and-go long (Tier-1 / Tier-2):
Asia/London: hold above 6,701–6,705 after a shallow dip → in NY AM, take the first 5m re-close + 1m HL toward 6,725–6,735.
Scale/target: TP1 6,725–6,735, runners toward 6,765–6,780 if strength persists. Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,701.

Flush-and-reclaim long (Tier-3 bounce):
• Quick sweep into 6,655–6,665 (or even 6,685–6,690) during London → immediate reclaim → first HL entry.
• Targets: back to 6,701 then 6,725–6,735. Invalidation: 15m close back inside/under the swept zone.

Pop-and-fail short (fade):
• Squeeze into 6,725–6,735 that fails to accept (15m rejection back inside) → take the first 5m LH.
• Targets: 6,701 then 6,685–6,690. Invalidation: 15m body acceptance above 6,735.

Stop-run reversal short:
• Spike into 6,765–6,795 (look for wick/absorption) → 15m rejection → 5m LH entry.
• Targets: 6,735 then 6,701. Invalidation: sustained 15m/30m acceptance above 6,795.

Management:
Anchor hard SL to the relevant 15m wick of the trigger ± a small buffer; require TP1 ≥ 2R to the next major level.
At TP1, trim most and put the runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level per session.

Overnight to Tomorrow NY Forecast

Base Case: Anticipate a range build between 6,685 and 6,735 overnight as the market absorbs the recent rebound. During the NY AM session (09:30–11:00 ET), initial attempts may test the 6,725–6,735 resistance before pulling back towards 6,701, potentially moving within the 6,685–6,690 range. Should buyers maintain support at 6,701 on a 15-minute chart, watch for a late-morning rebound back to the 6,725–6,735 zone, with a potential squeeze toward 6,755–6,780 if we see acceptance above 6,735.

The bias shifts to a bullish trend only with clear acceptance above 6,795, which would indicate multiple strong closes in that area, potentially targeting 6,820 and beyond. On the other hand, a decisive move below 6,655 would trigger a downward extension toward 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520.

Execution windows (ET)
• London: 02:00–05:00 — look for the sweep/reclaim plays.
• NY AM (primary): 09:30–11:00 — best momentum/rotation.
• NY PM: 13:30–16:00 — continuation or mean-revert back into the day’s pivot.

What changes the plan

• Acceptance above 6,735 early: favor continuation to 6,765–6,780 rather than fading.
  
• Hard failure at 6,701 with sellers defending on 15m: expect a deeper test into 6,685 → 6,655–6,665.
  
• Elevated macro headlines/data at 08:30/10:00 ET windows can temporarily override levels; let the impulse print, then trade the retest.