7/28: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
The post-FOMC session was marked by massive bi-directional moves, ultimately favoring the bears. Despite a promising 40 point overnight rally, the breakout turned into a failed breakout, erasing a week's worth of gains. This may be the setup bears have been waiting for.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed but China strong
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headlines
Bank of Japan announcement that it will allow higher rates and eventually retire it’s yield curve controls sends shock waves through markets.
Key Structures
Key structures include the purple ascending triangle, which broke out and then failed, and various support and resistance levels. The failed breakout is a warning for bulls, as short-term tops usually occur on this pattern.
Support Levels
Resistances are at 4566-68 (major), 4573, 4584 (major), 4592, 4600, 4608 (major), 4613 (major), 4623 (major), 4628, 4636, 4644-47 (major), 4656, 4664, 4673 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4607 (major), 4617-20, 4628, 4640 (major), 4650, 4663, 4668-71 (major), 4676, 4687 (major), 4700-05 (major), 4717, 4730, 4741 (major), 4755-60 (major).
Trading Plan
For longs, consider adding exposure on clearance of 4568, ideally after basing at the level. If selling continues, treat longs as high fail rate knife catches. For shorts, consider 4584 and 4608-13 as strong resistances and possible reaction points.
Wrap Up
The market is now in a volatile, complex phase that requires unbiased, level to level day trading. ES could try to engage more inside the triangle, possibly reclaiming 4568, running to 4584 or so, dipping again, then trying back to 4608. If 4555 fails, the triangle will be confirmed broken down and we can work down the levels to 4540-45, then 4527, and ultimately, all the way to 4490.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The post-FOMC session was marked by massive bi-directional moves, ultimately favoring the bears. Despite a promising 40 point overnight rally, the breakout turned into a failed breakout, erasing a week's worth of gains. This may be the setup bears have been waiting for.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed but China strong
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headlines
Bank of Japan announcement that it will allow higher rates and eventually retire it’s yield curve controls sends shock waves through markets.
Key Structures
Key structures include the purple ascending triangle, which broke out and then failed, and various support and resistance levels. The failed breakout is a warning for bulls, as short-term tops usually occur on this pattern.
Support Levels
Resistances are at 4566-68 (major), 4573, 4584 (major), 4592, 4600, 4608 (major), 4613 (major), 4623 (major), 4628, 4636, 4644-47 (major), 4656, 4664, 4673 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4607 (major), 4617-20, 4628, 4640 (major), 4650, 4663, 4668-71 (major), 4676, 4687 (major), 4700-05 (major), 4717, 4730, 4741 (major), 4755-60 (major).
Trading Plan
For longs, consider adding exposure on clearance of 4568, ideally after basing at the level. If selling continues, treat longs as high fail rate knife catches. For shorts, consider 4584 and 4608-13 as strong resistances and possible reaction points.
Wrap Up
The market is now in a volatile, complex phase that requires unbiased, level to level day trading. ES could try to engage more inside the triangle, possibly reclaiming 4568, running to 4584 or so, dipping again, then trying back to 4608. If 4555 fails, the triangle will be confirmed broken down and we can work down the levels to 4540-45, then 4527, and ultimately, all the way to 4490.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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