#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.13-8.18
Güncellendi
Last Week :
Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower.
Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above.
This Week :
This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet.
Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness.
Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under.
For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first.
I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25
Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65
Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18
Next Key 4403-4392
Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower.
Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above.
This Week :
This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet.
Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness.
Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under.
For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first.
I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25
Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65
Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18
Next Key 4403-4392
Yorum
Globex opened last night and pushed over 4487 but Couldn't get through resistance at 90-95 and that gave us a nice sell towards 79 and from there towards bigger Support below us. We cleared the stops towards 65 and ran out of supply which rotated the market back towards resistance. We had another stop run this time over 95-90 but as mentioned Key area to get over was 4508-02, failing to hold over 95-90 puts 79 and lower Supports back in targets. We already cleared stops down towards 65 last night which means that Support wont be that strong this time around and we could see a break/continuation from there. Key areas going forward are 4487-79 // 4465-60 // 45-37 Unless we can hold over 87-90 then that changes thingsYorum
Market gave a failure over 87 and a nice flush towards Support again but still had buying that kept us over. At this point we have supply trapped over 4480-90 but not strong enough selling to take out the Support. We knew coming into today that will either need size sellers or enough supply built up to go either way and the goal is still to sell to new buyers at every location. If we are not ready to go we could spend time in this 4465 - 4502-08 areas doing more balancing, we would need to get over 80-90 area to have a chance at continuation higher and if not we could see more selling come in later in the day possibly to test 65-60 againYorum
Yesterday our Support held and we got a push and hold over 87-90 area which gave us a push towards our Key Resistance at 08-02, end of day we ran the stops over 02 and pushed the marked back in that balance, Globex opened and went sideways but fail to hold, that is a Key area we needed to hold for stability and continuation higher. We got a flush back towards this 87-79 area and now breaking it, under here we have our lower Support to target and if we break continuation towards lower stops as targets. If we do break Support 45-37 is next area to watch. Unless market gets back over 87-90 and show stability again.Yorum
On Daily TF we are still somewhat in tighter consolidation at this area, so far still buying here, lets see what we get after Data and in RTH but our areas to watch going forward are 4502-08 // 4487-79 // 4465-60, If we again fail to take this support and get over 87 we could see rotation higher towards Supply again. This is area to be careful and not force it.Yorum
Here is our 65-60 Target, under it could see more selling towards lower targets as we now have trapped more supply above. I would be careful buying the dip today unless it shows strength because again margin calls are possible today unless we hold over 65-60Yorum
Support still holding, we took the stops under but that was it so far. Market still consolidating in this lower area we have to wait and see what it does and just continue trading area to are and get out if it doesn't show continuationYorum
65-60 Broke end of day with Supply above and gave a flush towards next target, since it was end of day we got front ran by covering ahead of target. 65-60 will be the area to watch tonight if we pull back towards it, if we fail there or cant pull back then we should see 45-37 tested where we would look for a response or continuation. We have Fed Minutes tomorrow so was this just a flush and we get back over 65-60 and hold tonight or we continue towards next lower targets? So far theme continued with more longs getting trapped on the way lower. Lets see what we get tonight.Yorum
So far Globex reached our 65-60 Resistance and gave a nice sell BUT we still haven't tagged the stops lower at 45-37 which is red flag for continuation lower. Careful shorting here with Fed today if selling stops for now we could rotate back to 6-65-70s and get some sideways action there selling more going into the afternoon. Careful after fed because we could still test 4445-37 // 22-18 // 03 Areas after minutes. For us to continued under before the fed we would need to get under 49-45 area and put in some volume and accept. Key Resistance today is 4487-79 IF we cant get back over it and get back under 65-60 again then we could see a nice flush lower for our targets. If we do continue lower before the fed then careful let the market find the bid and also careful for a possible pop after the minutes instead.Yorum
Since it is Fed day we seem to be stuck, we have supply above that wont let it rotate higher and buying under 49. We can hold around here filling in the buyers with supply that's coming out in smaller ranges until we can continue which ever way. Need to be careful trading here between 4460-45 as we have no direction here for now.Yorum
Looks like it gave us the 49 break after all and finally reached our next target area 45-37, Lets see what we do here if RTH cant hold we have our lower targets in play unless we can hold here and rotate back towards 65-60Yorum
4422-18 Target hit end of day, selling looked pretty strong and we are still under all the supply, can we continue tonight?Yorum
Careful looking for continuation without market showing weakness, so far yesterday we hit our big target for the week and that area under 4420-18 was potential Support, we dipped inside it during Globex but failed to accept and continue towards next lower target. Holding above 22-18 if selling is over we can see rotation back towards 45-37 and if we do get there and wont get more selling in RTH we could see rotation back towards 4450s-60s and even 70s top of current Value is 4478-65. Lets see what we get today, for any continuation lower today we would need to hold under 4445-37 to see a move back towards 22-18 and would need a break of that.Yorum
And if we do fail to reach 45-37 and find more selling under 4422-08 we could target 4403 area, IF that breaks and we accept under or have visible volume we have 4390 and 4380-62 as next Big Support, market currently looking for a bid and if under 22-18 not it then we will look lowerYorum
So far market is very slow and grindy, I would not be surprised if we spent the day in this 4420-4445 +/- area today because target was hit and who ever got too short at the bottom or at the open of Globex is now our Support going into today under 4422-18 UNLESS we break and accept under there is no continuation RTH today. Holding over that means we can rotate towards 4445-37 but there is supply and Settlement lows above so we can't really expect too much upside from 37-45 IF any because of that. This would as well let the market clean up a bit at the same time draining the time decay from options of those who has puts for continuation and calls for a bounce.Yorum
Beautiful correction so far with pretty much 2 major targets for the week hit. Last few weeks were big because we only get that so many times a year especially on the short side. So far today as mentioned IF marked failed to tag and hold 4437-45 then there is a chance to trade back towards 4422-18, IF 22-18 is broken that can cause more selling, since last week I have also been reminding that we keep holding under Settlement lows which means more chances for margin traders selling out so need to be careful buying dips and looking for the bounces like we have been getting because distribution phase of the market might be over for now. We are now marking down the product and looking for the bid to give us Support, on bigger time frames and volume profile I see good structure under 4330 which could do that for us and some space between that and 4370 that might be good to fill in which makes it a good spot to flush this product into and see where we find the bid. The way we closed today I would be surprised not to see some continuation tonight but we have to see what we get. For market to regain stability we would need to hold 78-74 and get back over 4392-4403, if not we can see a test of 4375-70-62, Our Key Support area is 4362-50+/- we would need to hold under there for any continuation. We still have some Support at this 4380-74 area, this would be spot to watch if we open over/under. Levels to watch will be Support 4379-74 / 67-65 / 62-59 Resistance 86-92 // 99-05Yorum
Looking over bigger time frames again 4390-50s +/- could be our range tomorrow, we still have some Daily Stops under this 4375 area that I cant see us not running as a lot of people expecting a big bounce from here but we can't forget the selling coming into here was strong and its hard to just reverse that without a big bid, we would first need to have some holding action going on and this would be a good location for it. We would need to break under 4350 and put in time/volume under in order to continue any lower and for market to regain strength it would need to hold over 4390-4403Yorum
Lower targets under 4378-74 IF market can continue 4362-59 // 49.50 Would need to break under 49-45 to See continuation, tag of 4330s possible if enough selling comes in. Would need a move over 78-74 and show stability to start thinking long from here as we should have more in the tank. Next key support if anything is 4327-21Yorum
Careful getting too aggressive to the short side because we are in the area of buying and potential Support now, we maybe still see continuation but so far we flushed 62-59 and next target at 49.50 got front ran. If we start holding over 62 again that could provide some Support from whoever got stuck selling the lows under 60 and we could see balancing in this 75-60 area with maybe continuation later today towards 49-45? unless we open and get selling to keep going then I would wait and give it time to show what it wants to do because we already made a big from from Globex Resistance down into this Support. We would need to get under 55-53 and take out 49.50-45 for continuation today. For market to regain strength we would need to hold over 62-59 and push to/over 75-78 if not then 49-45 still in the cards today just might have to give it time as its Friday and it wont be easy after already big move.Yorum
Again careful getting aggressive short here we are at big support and looks like market may have found the bid, over 75-78 if we accept we can see move back to 4390-4400, If we hold under 78-75 then still possible to see 49-45 flush todayYorum
Over 4375 we could see higher resistance targets tested at 87-92 // 4000-05, marked found Support careful shorting
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