ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week

6 Oca

Big Picture ES Futures:




ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25.


On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week.

Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible.

All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter.


Key Levels:

Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25
CVAH: 5,854.25
Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050
Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25
Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115
Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155
All time highs: 6,184.50


Scenario 1: New All Time Highs

ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month.


Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback

Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.