ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Aug7-11)
SUMMARY
ECONOMIC EVENTS
EARNINGS
BULLISH NOTES
BEARISH NOTES
- ES finished the week with a loss of 2.37 % after trading in a range of 122 pts.
- ES fell below the HTF 786 Fib RT
- First support is now the Aug 16th High / 55 ema
- All sectors closed red last week except XLE which closed 1.25% higher. Weakest sectors were XLK & XLU.
- Catalyst for Thursday sell off was the Fitch downgrade of US debt rating.
- Now in a seasonally weak period of the year.
- Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the 618 Fib retracement is possible
- Watching 10 yields as they pushed above 4.19% last Thursday
- Earning season continues with reports from CELH, BABA, UPS, LCID, PLTR & RIVN
- Key econ data this week includes US S&P CPI on Thursday & US PPI on Friday
ECONOMIC EVENTS
- MON Fed's Bostic & Bowman Speak
- TUES CAD Trade Balance, US Trade Balance, US wholesale inventories & Fed's Barkin speaks
- WED EIA Crude Inventories
- THUR US CPI, OPEC Monthly Report & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed's Bostic & Harker speak
- FRI US PPI & University of Mich. Sentiment
EARNINGS
- MON ATVI, KKR, LCID, PLTR, RNG, SWKS, TSN
- TUES CELH, DDOG, DOCS, GLBE, GOLD, LLY, QGEN, QSR, RIVN, TTWO, TWLO, UA, UPS, UPST, ZTS
- WED BAM, DIS, ILMN, MFC, PLUG, RBLX, TTD, WEN, WYNN
- THUR AQN, BABA, WPM, YETI
- FRI Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
- ES above the Aug 16th high
- EMAs remain stacked.
- Price is now only 8.84% from ATH
- Potential positive reaction to CPI/PPI data.
- Potential rotation into small caps
- Buy the dip is back in favour.
- Market breath has improved.
- Potential bounce from the Aug 16th high
- ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
- Stoch 5,1 is Oversold
BEARISH NOTES
- Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
- Lower time frame double top confirmed
- ES dropped below the 9 & 21 emas.
- Potential negative reaction CPI/PPI data.
- Retest of Aug 16th high is likely
- Deeper pull back to lower trendline is possible
- Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
- Seasonally weak period for stocks.
- Potential yield move back above 4.20%.
- VIX rising
