Another 48h - 3rd Bearish Day Of Last 19 Days, For The DXY

2024/10/24
Another 48h - 3rd Bearish Day Of Last 19 Days, For The DXY
“tomorrow new us durable goods figures! will they be good enough?”


Yesterday there was a bearish sell-off day on the US stock markets: an online broker friend of mine said to me that, "Wall Street is now expecting Donald Trump to win - and therefore I fear an impending "Trumpinflation" due to his tariff restrictions, which he wants to realize if he is elected." I hadn't even thought that far ahead, let alone assumed it. But I personally expect the US Democrats to win - although I would also prefer Trump and/or his US Republican party. But that is the decision of the Americans - and from November 6th, 2024 we will deal with it (one way or another).

As a reminder; the huge increase in US inflation has already taken place under the Democrats, under Secretary Harris. As is the case throughout the so-called West, due to the coronavirus outbreak response, and green politics, under the guise of liberal democracy. But I don't want to continue the discussion I had with him today during the day at this point. Because Trump has proven that he can do better over the last 4 years. Even if Democrats denounce him as an anti-Semite; yes, even blame for the Virus. Absurd! But that is not the issue. I stick with what I've been writing for days: "Of course the US elections have a decisive, decisive influence! But I don't want to and can't quantify it! Therefore focus on the price action."

However - this week there is only us durable goods as important new US economic data. Doesn't everything else had no influence on the price action, this week? No! But I would like to focus in this calendar week, meanwhile the 5th trading of 5 days, on the w formation, and/or also the medium-term high, the long-term historical trend reversal formation. So we have 2 technical factors for the course of the week - to (not) learn something new. And/Or even formulate a long TVC:DXY 4XSetUp? If the TVC:DXY should break out above! In the event of a downward breakout, I don't dare say that today (yet)...

104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - mid-term high
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation

These are the most important technical prices this week.
A breakout near the top and/or down should attract the attention of the bulls and/or bears!? And spark trend-following price dynamics?! And because we only get very important US economic data on Friday this week that could fundamentally justify bullish or bearish price dynamics, the price action is likely to continue to move sentimentally over the course of the week.

“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality is distorted by a misconception.”
George Soros

On Wall Street today, despite the monster rally of NASDAQ:TSLA , there was little change in the US indices. So some few words from my home country, my birth country Germany, where a left-wing liberal green social democratic federal government has ruled since 2021. Which I strongly supported politically 3 years ago, even though I'm basically a conservative, freedom-loving person. Transferred to the USA - 2 party system - here the government is to the left of the so-called RINOS. I would also count myself among them - federal republican conservative freedom lovers - in a figurative sense (German political system in US American system). Today, our german economiy is in recession. Why am I writing this? Because some reports were published today that we have probably seen the death knell for our traffic light coalition today: because our federal government expects much lower taxes, as was published today. What could now lead to a test between Habeck (Green Economics Minister), Scholz (Social Democratic Chancellor) and/or Lindner (Liberal Finance Minister)? Especially when Trump comes! Because then here in Germany, because we are in recession yet, there will definitely be no economic miracle due to the impending tariffs. The USA is the largest economic partner in the EUR area - and our German economy is the largest. If Trump wins the US elections and imposes tariffs and "poaches" German companies, the economic situation in Germany will become even worse. Nonetheless, let our 4 open daily long XETR:ADS & XETR:CBK & XETR:BMW & XETR:DTE 4XSetUps of the XETR:DAX continue to run - with corresponding target prices and/or stop prices. Because the companies in which we are long meanwhile generate the largest sales and earnings abroad.

103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - high while last Inflation Data
102.720 points - (2024/10/10) - low while last Inflation Data
102.624 points - (2024/10/04) - high while last Labor Market Report
101.855 points - (2024/10/04) - low while last Labor Market Report

The latest us unemployment rate and/or us inflation rate played into the hands of the bullish TVC:DXY traders and investors. Therefore, a price action above should generally continue to be bullish for the TVC:DXY ! Or?

• Does The DXY Break Out Of The W-Formation High?
  
• Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
  
• Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
  
• Does The DXY Break Down Of The W-Formation Low?
  

However, these 3 questions need to be answered - in the next 48 hours and/or later. So that we can learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. But let’s not allow ourselves to be put under time pressure. Let's give ourselves - and the market (i.e. the price action) time - until the US elections. The influence of which I cannot formulate let alone quantify! But no one assumes that they have no influence! Are you?

The last price action was at 104.019 DXY.
The low of the w formation is at 102.160 points.
The high of the w formation is at 104.447 points.
When I titled our learning material yesterday with "one swallow doesn't make a summer," I meant that we shouldn't jump too fast and/or too high conclusions. And the price action, the market, the majority of traders and investors seem to agree with us at the moment. Because the previous breakout from the w formation doesn't seem to have been an breakout at all. May be the price action yesterday, on Wednesday, was a false false breakout? Is it going down again now? Is the TVC:DXY rally now over? I don't want to jump to any conclusions about this either. The weekly trend line runs just below the current last price action at 103,965 points. So it's still what i wrote and realize yesterday, yet: “It would be even healthier, at least in my opinion, if the TVC:DXY recovers in the coming days to as low as 103.447 - the weekly low from Sunday this week. Yes, even a fall to 103.104 points wouldn't be bad, only to then turn up again at the level of the price action after the publication of the last US inflation rate. So we could then add fundamental reasons for a continued more expensive US dollar. But to use fundamental arguments we first wait for the us durable goods on Friday. So long story short - basically there is a tendency to stay rather bullish than bearish in the TVC:DXY. But (still) no long DXY 4XSetUp (yet)...”

So let's wait for tomorrow's trading day.
And then at the weekend we think about new old fundamental thoughts again - in order to learn something!? - to have what we have learned confirmed!? In order to possibly formulate a 4XSetUp based on this!?


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
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