The latest brief before the Fed's decision

26 Eyl 2018

Today is a significant day for the American dollar, which can define its dynamics for a quite long time. In the previous review, we have analyzed the possibilities of different decisions, so long story short - here are the key conclusions. The possibility of the rate being increased today - is 100% (how bold it wouldn’t sound). Therefore, if the decision to increase rate will be denied, it will be a strong punch for a dollar. The sales of a dollar are just unavoidable. However, we would like to stress one more time that the last thing is impossible. Only if it happens, it is strongly recommended to sell dollar on all fronts. There is also one scenario, in which the rate can be increased by 0.5%, but it is unlikely to happen. In this case, it would be a decisive factor for a dollar; hence you can aggressively buy the American currency. All points mentioned above have a very low probability, though.
Again, we note that the most likely scenario - is the rate increase by 0.25%. Apparently, this event is included in the dollar’s price. That means - before you make a trading decision, pay attention to Fed’s commentaries. Primarily, on the Fed’s plan in the foreseeable future. If the increased rate will be corrected in 2019, most likely that dollar will be under pressure and will be subjected to a sell-off. The issues can occur in the case of the Fed’s “positive” comments. Among other things, the concerns regarding the effect of a trade war and doubts around the feasibility of current unchanged monetary policy’s course under such circumstances. Such commentaries may launch a dollar’s sell-off. If the Fed will recognize the favorable condition of the American economy (which is) and will keep its course, the buck will be strengthened.
So, follow the Fed’s decision alongside with Central Bank’s commentaries. How to react in different cases, we have described above.