DXY Weekly Analysis
The chart has a lot to look at, so I am providing a brief on how to read it.
1. The Chart shows two PAs Which are remarkably similar. All the similarities in PA and indicators are described on the chart itself.
Following is a list of similarities.
1. Multiple Drives of Bearish divergences in Momentum and Stoch RSI.
2. Positioning of 13, 21 and 34 EMAs today and at a similar place in Past PA.
3. Gann one-third angle crossing purple EMA line at exact same Spot.
4. Money flow is at the same level as in Past.
Since we have so many similarities, there is no reason to believe that future PA will not act like it did in past from this point. We are at a local top today in DXY. DXY will have to first cool off and range between the max (red EMA line (around 106) and the current top (114) for a while before it starts making new highs. Based on the past PA we can go to the maximum to 119 in the coming months.
Now one can argue this is all technical and real-world events like fed rate hike and inflation can make DXY deviate from the past pattern or violate the technical. In my experience fundamentals can only violate short term technical like 4h or daily but it would be extremely hard for any fundamental event to violate Weekly Technical. Why is that?
I view technical indicators as a mathematical representation of real-world events. It stores price action deviations that took place because all the traders in the world traded in a certain way. That Certain way emerged because trades were taken based on fundamental and technical events that happened in the past, which motivated traders to either buy or sell the asset at a given point. So, what do we understand from this?
Technical indicator is not just some mathematical formulae that draws lines on a chart it shows where we are in PA based on human psychological decisions taken based on real world events. Now if that statement makes sense. Then let's look at what technical indicators are saying.
We have multiple drives of bearish divergence in momentum RSI and Stoch RSI on Weekly Time Frame. What does this show?
It shows that even though we have inflation going higher, we have potential fed rate hike coming up we have a war going on, there is a gradual slowdown in purchase of Dollar over past several months. There could be several reasons for this, one reason could be that there is a finite amount of money in the world that can be poured into dollar, and that money is now close to a local exhaustion.
Using past PA as a guide, we can determine what happened when we reached this point earlier. It clearly shows we have reached a local peak and now we need to cool down, any fundamental new may pump DXY for a day but over a week or couple of weeks it is going to go down.
If you really have a good feel for what each indicator means, you can trade any asset without looking at the news.
1. The Chart shows two PAs Which are remarkably similar. All the similarities in PA and indicators are described on the chart itself.
Following is a list of similarities.
1. Multiple Drives of Bearish divergences in Momentum and Stoch RSI.
2. Positioning of 13, 21 and 34 EMAs today and at a similar place in Past PA.
3. Gann one-third angle crossing purple EMA line at exact same Spot.
4. Money flow is at the same level as in Past.
Since we have so many similarities, there is no reason to believe that future PA will not act like it did in past from this point. We are at a local top today in DXY. DXY will have to first cool off and range between the max (red EMA line (around 106) and the current top (114) for a while before it starts making new highs. Based on the past PA we can go to the maximum to 119 in the coming months.
Now one can argue this is all technical and real-world events like fed rate hike and inflation can make DXY deviate from the past pattern or violate the technical. In my experience fundamentals can only violate short term technical like 4h or daily but it would be extremely hard for any fundamental event to violate Weekly Technical. Why is that?
I view technical indicators as a mathematical representation of real-world events. It stores price action deviations that took place because all the traders in the world traded in a certain way. That Certain way emerged because trades were taken based on fundamental and technical events that happened in the past, which motivated traders to either buy or sell the asset at a given point. So, what do we understand from this?
Technical indicator is not just some mathematical formulae that draws lines on a chart it shows where we are in PA based on human psychological decisions taken based on real world events. Now if that statement makes sense. Then let's look at what technical indicators are saying.
We have multiple drives of bearish divergence in momentum RSI and Stoch RSI on Weekly Time Frame. What does this show?
It shows that even though we have inflation going higher, we have potential fed rate hike coming up we have a war going on, there is a gradual slowdown in purchase of Dollar over past several months. There could be several reasons for this, one reason could be that there is a finite amount of money in the world that can be poured into dollar, and that money is now close to a local exhaustion.
Using past PA as a guide, we can determine what happened when we reached this point earlier. It clearly shows we have reached a local peak and now we need to cool down, any fundamental new may pump DXY for a day but over a week or couple of weeks it is going to go down.
If you really have a good feel for what each indicator means, you can trade any asset without looking at the news.
Feragatname
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