A bullish setup ?

21 Mar

I was looking at the DXY on a 30 mins' scale and here's what I observe as depicted in the chart. a leading diagonal followed by a corrective three waves (abc) retracement that can be labelled as a (1),(2) setup. This is followed by an impulsive wave with a fifth wave extension catalyzes by the first rate hike by BOJ in 17 years. At the present moment, I am not certain if this wave is labelled as (3) or the subwave 1 of a smaller degree. This is followed by a precipitous drop following the comment made by Jerome Powell that the Fed will stick to the three rate cuts' plan in 2024. It has now retraced 61.8% of the preceding impulsive wave. Again, I am not certain if this should be labelled as a (4) or subwave 2 of a smaller degree. If this "retracement" wave is labelled as a wave (4), it will have dropped below the top of wave (1). This implies we will have to labelled this waveform as a potential leading diagonal.

We will have to see the steepness of the rise of the next impulsive wave to ascertain whether it is (1),(2),(3),(4) or (1),(2),1,2 setup if it happens. We shall see !