The closer is July, the closer is 18500?

18 May 2020

I believe that the FED and U.S. Treasury are doing pretty good to support economy with their moves. However, I made a very simple observation on what DJ path might be in case economic and Covid scenarios get worse. I based my observation on a series of increasing tops(1,2,3) started after the March crash and not followed by another absolute top(4). This could be consider a first weakness of the V-shape recovery. I also see the crossover between a 20 SMA and 60 SMA. The closer we get to July with Q2s, the close we get to 18500 again ?

18 May 2020

Not

Today the news about the good outcomes from Moderna has skyrocketed the index towards the top of April. However, in the last 15 minutes the DJ dropped around 130 points so that its closing is at same level of the top 3(see pics).
Thus imho, another absolute top, higher than top 3, must follow in the next few days as a strong proof of DJ strength.
I still have a neutral view of the index with a short view like in the pic, if economic scenario gets worse in the next times.