DJI: Trump's Covid-19 Case - A Historical Comparison

2 Eki 2020

In this analysis I'll be shedding light on my own theory on:

- How President Trump's Covid-19 Positive news may impact the market
- Similarities and differences in historic cases
- Why Trump possibly announced his testing positive so quickly

Trump's Testing Positive
- Trump testing positive for Covid-19, 4 weeks before the presidential elections, is not good news
- Especially considering that the current market is momentum driven, such bad news is good enough to scare new investors from pouring money into the market

We can see a similar case where the president's medical condition negatively impacted the market

Historic case
- President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 25, 1955.
- Before this incident, the stock market was at an unprecedented bullish rally
- Immediately after news was released that he was hospitalized, the market fell by 6%, leading to $14 billion instantly vanishing
- Eisenhower recovered, and it was later announced that his condition was not serious
- Eventually, the market bounced, and continued to rally upwards

- President Trump also announced his testing positive for Covid-19 a few hours ago
- Just as Eisenhower's case, the stock market is in an uptrend, with significant bullish momentum
- The market is correcting, due to bad news, but not as significantly as that of the past
- Just as Eisenhower, considering the fact that Trump will be taken care of seriously, it's most likely that he will recover from the virus
- As such, it's reasonable to expect that the market will continue to rally upwards

- However, it's also important to consider that market situations are not the same as the past
- For more in-depth explanation on what makes today's market special, check out my previous analysis below:

Why did Trump announce his condition?
- This is an important question to ask, as Trump announced his testing positive for Covid via twitter
- Trump is arguably the most powerful person in the world. He could have concealed his condition if he really wanted to, and later justify it as "classified information"
- What could have been Trump's intentions behind this?
- In the case of the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, his support rate was at 48% prior to him testing positive
- After he got the virus, there was a sentiment of sympathy among the general public, leading to his support rate skyrocketing to 72%, an all time high support rate ever since Tony Blair
- Given this case, and the fact that the presidential elections will be held in 4 weeks, Trump could have been targeting this sympathetic sentiment among the general public
- It's also highly likely that Trump recovers quickly, with the best medical staff from the country treating him
- As such, he will be qualified to talk about the issue (as someone who has caught the virus), and suggest that he's the only one capable of solving the problem.

Conclusion
As past cases demonstrate, problems regarding the President's medical condition is never good for the market. However, given that the president recovers quickly, this could end up being a 'buy the dip' opportunity.

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3 Eki 2020

Not

A report was just released by the White House, stating that President Trump is doing very well. He does not require any supplemental oxygen, and that specialists have decided to initiate the Remdesivir therapy.

Remdesivir is an antiviral medication originally developed by biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences (GILD) to treat Ebola.

Gilead Sciences' weekly chart demonstrates that it's testing significant support levels on the weekly. Resistance levels are at $70, and $78.