Johnson’s step back, IMF forecasts and blame game

15 Eki 2020

The foreign exchange market continues to follow with interest the ups and downs of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. Despite the fact that the deadlines are running out, the sides continue to raise rates in the hope that the opponents will be the first to lose their nerves. Apparently, looks like the EU is winning. The point is that Johnson's ultimatum to withdraw from the negotiation process, if there will be no results before the summit, will remain empty threats. At least, according to the latest information, the UK does not plan to leave the negotiating table, which means that the EU has outlived Britain. Well, it also means that the deal is likely to be. So buying the pound in the short term seems like a potential trading idea.

However, the medium and long term will still be determined on the pandemic front, and on it for the EU, Britain, and the majority of the world, everything looks more than unsightly. The IMF has lowered its own forecasts for the pace of global economic recovery in 2021. The current 2020 promises to be a disaster for almost all countries, with the exception of China. Among emerging countries, India will suffer the most (the country's GDP will decrease by more than 10% at the end of 2020). In this light, we cannot fail to note that sales in the Indian stock market have not looked so attractive for a long time.

And the US stock market continues to look extremely promising due to the current impasse in the US stimulus package. Trump's constant mood swings, the “blame game” of Democrats and Republicans, the last 2 weeks left before the elections - everything strongly indicate that before the announcement of the election results in the United States, one should not count on new stimulus for the economy from the US government.