I decided to do this backtest first, because it involved way less data input. This covers the entire time from DELL went public again (since the end of 2018).
Total # of trades: 140
Winning closed trades: 136
Losing / open trades: 4 (the three I discussed above and one just before that)
Win rate = 97.1% (barely hits the whisper number - I wonder if I'll get a boost or tank?)
Average win = 4.7%
Median win = 4.5%
1 in 5 trades gained over 7.1%
and 1 in 10 was over 8.8%
Not surprising that those numbers are lower than the data in the original post considering it's a much larger sample size taken during some rockier times than just this year for DELL.
Avg. hold = 28 trading days
Median hold = 9 trading days
78% of trades lasted 1 month (20 trading days) or less
Max # of lots held = 14
Return per lot per day held = +.166%
Annualized rate of return = .166% x 252 (trading days) = +41.8%
NOTE: that doesn't mean you make 41.8% per year on DELL trades. What it does mean is that trades are pretty profitable given how long they are held and that helps free up capital to use on other trades.
NOTE #2: That .166%/lot/day is skewed higher by the fact that DELL hasn't had to weather any REALLY bad market situations, so it didn't have long bearish periods where it took a long time for trades to close. Realistically, all these numbers read a little "hot" to me, based on my other backtesting results, but they are what they are. Any way you slice it, a 97% win rate leaves a smile on my face, and that's the number that feels least "hot" to me.
Even if that annualized rate of return is triple what it 'should" be (I think it is MAYBE double), consider that the long term annualized rate of return for stocks in general is around 10% since the 1950s. I'm very happy with the test results and frankly, am not surprised by any of it. Have a good weekend! Happy Friday the 13th!