CRV/USDT — Descending Channel: Reversal or Another Rejection?

📊 Market Overview

Curve DAO Token (CRV) is currently standing at a critical juncture after spending several months moving inside a well-defined descending channel since early August.
This channel has consistently reflected sustained selling pressure — yet recent momentum shows buyers pushing back, testing the upper boundary of the channel, and signaling a potential shift in short-term trend dynamics.

At the moment, CRV is retesting the key resistance zone between 0.79 and 0.82 USDT, aligning with the upper boundary of the descending channel — a classic decision zone that will likely define whether the next move is a breakout or another rejection.


📈 Technical Structure & Pattern Explanation

Main pattern: Descending Channel
The structure reflects a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, contained within parallel boundaries, forming a clear bearish trend channel.

Technical validation:
Multiple touches on both upper and lower boundaries confirm strong technical respect for the pattern — making it a reliable setup.

Key horizontal levels (based on the chart):

Immediate support: 0.7970

Major resistance zones: 0.8233 → 0.9369 → 1.0000 → 1.0404 → 1.0951

High level: 1.1626

Mid-channel support: 0.64–0.70

Lower boundary: 0.55–0.60

Major structural low: 0.4893


🔥 Bullish Scenario – Breakout and Early Reversal Setup

Bullish narrative:
If CRV successfully breaks and closes a daily candle above 0.8233, it would signal a clear breakout from the descending channel — potentially marking the early stage of a trend reversal after months of downside pressure.

Confirmation checklist:

Rising volume during breakout.

RSI breaking above 50 and trending toward 60–70.

MACD showing a bullish crossover with positive histogram growth.

Upside targets after breakout:

First target: 0.9369 – minor resistance & initial breakout confirmation zone.

Second target: 1.0404 – key psychological and historical resistance.

Extended target: 1.0951 → 1.1626 – if momentum remains strong.

Trading plan & risk management:

Aggressive entry: on daily close above 0.82.

Conservative entry: wait for a retest of the upper channel as support (~0.80).

Stop loss: below 0.74–0.75 (failed breakout zone).

Take profit gradually at the levels mentioned above.

Bullish conclusion:
A confirmed breakout with strong volume could signal the transition from a medium-term downtrend to a neutral or bullish recovery phase.


⚠️ Bearish Scenario – Rejection and Continuation of the Downtrend

Bearish narrative:
If CRV fails to close above the upper trendline and faces rejection near 0.80–0.82, the descending channel remains intact — confirming that sellers still dominate the market structure.

Confirmation checklist:

Bearish candlestick formations (e.g., bearish engulfing, shooting star) near upper trendline.

Weak volume on approach to resistance.

RSI fails to cross 50 and turns downward again.

Downside targets:

First target: mid-channel area ~0.66–0.70.

Second target: lower boundary 0.55–0.60.

Final support: 0.4893 – major structural low.

Trading plan & risk management:

Entry short after confirmed rejection candle.

Stop loss above 0.85–0.90 (outside the channel).

Take profit at mid- and lower-channel zones.

Bearish conclusion:
As long as CRV remains below 0.82 and continues to respect the descending channel, the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows remains valid.


🔍 Overall Technical Summary

The descending channel defines CRV’s structure clearly — it’s now testing the most crucial point of that formation.
A daily close above 0.8233 could trigger a trend reversal, while a rejection would extend the downtrend.
Momentum and volume confirmation will be key in determining which path unfolds next.


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