Week ahead: GDP and Inflation

25 May 2020

Week ahead: GDP and Inflation
It is a busy week ahead for the markets as the Coronavirus is still front and center. Oil is up 75% in the past month while tensions between the United States and China escelates. Traders and investors should take caution when entering into the markets this week..

As of today, the Coronavirus death toll stands at 343,116 as the United States edges towards the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths.

All dates are in NZDT.

Mexico’s GDP Growth rate – Tuesday, May 26th

Mexico has recorded 7,179 deaths implying a near 11% fatality rate. With over 50 million residents being in relative poverty in a population of 130 million, their Coronavirus “curve” is unlikely to flatten in the short term. Furthermore, the IMF predicts negative GDP growth of -7.1%, down from -.5%.

This is on the back of President Andres Obrador, stating that they will implement a “Happiness Index” alongside their GDP releases.

Currencies to look out for: USD/MXN



US CB Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth Rate and Core PCE Price index – May 27th, 29th and 30th

As the United States edges towards 100,00 deaths due to the Coronavirus, President Donald Trump insists on getting the economy going again. Analysts regard this as gambling on the lives of American Citizens. However, with stimulus checks and working from home be prevalent in the past couple of weeks, the US consumer is predicted to splurge once physical retail opens. A drop from 118.8 to 86.9 last month, analysts predict a slight jump to 88 this month. Alongside this, results on the GDP quarter over quarter is expected to drop 6.9% from 2.1% to -4.8%, with the core PCE Price Index expected to drop to 1.1% from 1.7%. The Core Personal Consumption Price Index is the Feds preferred inflation measure.

Currencies to look out for USD/NZD, USD/AUD



Friday, 29th May – Euro Core Inflation Rate

With the Majority of Europe slowly flattening the curve, plans of a $545 Billion recovery fund backed by debt from the majority of the richer countries in the European Union has come into fruition. Therefore, Europe will be able to “raise money and transfer directly to the countries, regions, and industries most in need, without further impairing their economic situation by increasing their debt,” Euroasia’s Mujtaba Rahman stated to the New York Times. Even alongside the ECB ramping up their Asset purchasing program, demand for goods and services due to the Coronavirus is expected to have a net decline. Inflation is expected to drop this week ahead to 0.8%, from 0.9%

Currencies to look out for: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP



Sunday, 31st May – China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI

With their recent move to take control of Hong Kong to defend itself from attacks regarding the origins of the Coronavirus, China has been center stage in the Coronavirus and Scrutiny. With Li Keqiang announcing that they will abandon setting their annual target for GDP, their focus shifts to employment with a 500B stimulus package ensuring employees can keep their jobs. This is on top of the myriad government stimulus provided, ensuring liquidity within the financial markets and providing loans to small to medium businesses. A large chunk of the stimulus is predicted to go to infrastructure projects, like that in 2008. With a drop to 20.8 from 52 in April, a boost in government stimulus may see the PMI increase.

Currencies to look out for: AUD/USD



With tensions between different political parties rise alongside election season being in full swing amongst many countries, investors and traders this week ahead should prepare for an increase in volatility as statements for influential figures may cause key currencies and indices to swing violently.