COINBASE What happens to a dream deferred?

22 Tem 2022

Part Two of the Qualitative and Quantitative COIN analysis.

Quantitative

My updated levels for Coinbase are 63.5 and 53.5 , these are support levels and potential Short targets.
I added the 105 level for balance, Long target but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

Tangible Book Value Range is still the same: 35.22 to 23.48
Net Current Asset Value: 11.48

The price has reached an upper wall of the channel I traced from around November 2021. Considering the volume Coinbase trades with, I think it can easily break through this wall, whether if I think it should is another topic.

I've linked my previous Coinbase ideas below, if anyone is interested in previous levels.

Qualitative

I will list the events and at the end make a conclusion as to why this Qualitative analysis matters, and how it should affect the COIN price.

Coinbase in the news, July 21

July 21st 2022 - Former Coinbase product manager charged with tipping off co-conspirator about tokens that were about to be listed on the exchange.

This is commonly known as insider trading. Link to the official Press Release is attached below.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/three-charged-first-ever-cryptocurrency-insider-trading-tipping-scheme

This was originally brought to light by a Twitter user Cobie, on April 12th 2022.

Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase in a twitter thread has revealed that since April they've investigated the alleged misconduct and provided the information to law enforcement. Happy ending, Coinbase did the right thing. Investigations take time, especially when multiple agencies are involved, if anything the timeline from April to July 21st of Investigation to Indictment is very quick.

For those of us following the crypto industry, often hear the word Regulation, we understand it's just a matter of time until the industry gets regulated.

It is funny that Coinbase in doing the right thing and reporting insider trading, led to the SEC officially naming several Coinbase listed tokens as Securities. What will this result in, I can't tell.

I linked the official SEC Press Release below.

Tokens Affected:
AMP, RLY, DDX, XYO, RGT, LCX, POWR, DFX, KROM

Regarding the DFX and KROM tokens, they do not show up in Coinbase symbol search, I assume they're no longer listed.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-127

Conclusion

Coinbase has been struggling with financials, looking at the chart, it is clear that a lot of value has been lost. But, Coinbase has also done a lot to optimize it's operations since last quarter. Earnings Report is on August 9th, and I intend to read through the 10-Q.

Coinbase listed tokens being named as securities in the SEC report, SEC has mentioned before that currently it does not consider BTC and ETH to be securities, this might change. I anticipate Coinbase will revise it's listing framework, stricter rules, stricter due diligence. Either way, short term effects will be clear when the market opens today.

This is my Thesis, targets are purely hypothetical based on my analysis.
This is NOT Investment and/or Trading Advice.

Happy Trades!

❤️ If you enjoy my ideas , Please like/comment , It means a lot, Thank You! ❤️

26 Tem 2022

Not

Coinbase launched a petition asking the SEC to make rules specifically for Digital Asset Securities. After reading the Press Release, I've struggled to find any compelling argument as to why Crypto Securities should receive different treatment to traditional Securities.
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Coinbase also made some bold statements, because the securities statutes were adopted in the 1930's there's no way they can apply to digital assets. They describe digital assets (not all I suppose) as:

"a decentralized, cryptographically-based, automated financial instrument would be adopted en masse by millions of people in the United States and around the world."

Cryptographically-based - yes, this one checks out.
Decentralized? - ugh, like Celsius, Ethereum, Tron?
Automated financial instrument. - I guess some are, but if we look back at what happened to Terra stable coin, yea.

The article itself feels more like damage control, since SEC named 9 Coinbase listed tokens Securities.

Link to the Press Release:
blog.coinbase.com/the-crypto-securities-market-is-waiting-to-be-unlocked-but-first-we-need-workable-rules-c0ba63eabab3

26 Tem 2022

Not

Level 63.5 reached pre-market, I believe.
Level 53.5 is withing reach, I'm still in an active trade.



Original thesis is in play, I'm inching my take-profit as the price drops.
Best case scenario is Tangible Book Value Range: 35.22 to 23.48 somewhere around the Earnings Report (August 9th)