Oil Went Back to 'Pre-conflict' Level on Israel-Iran Ceasefire

24 Haz

The Israel-Iran ceasefire has triggered a sharp reversal in global oil markets, sending prices tumbling back to levels seen before the recent conflict. Brent crude BRN1! fell below $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate CL1! dropped to around $65, erasing the risk premium that had built up during nearly two weeks of hostilities. This rapid decline—nearly 17% from the conflict’s peak—reflects investor relief that the threat of major supply disruptions, especially through the vital Strait of Hormuz, has receded for now.

However, the outlook remains uncertain. While the ceasefire has calmed immediate fears, the truce is fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations within hours of its announcement. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is still subdued, insurance costs for tankers remain elevated, and some shipowners are steering clear of the region, indicating persistent caution in energy logistics.

If the ceasefire holds, markets may stabilize further, supporting global economic recovery and easing inflationary pressures.

But any renewed escalation or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse these gains, keeping energy markets on alert for further geopolitical shocks.

The main technical graph for Dec'25 WTI Futures CLZ2025 indicates on 'cup and handle' technical structure with the nearest support around $62 per bll, and further 'double top' price action in upcoming development.

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Best wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎

4 gün önce

İşlem aktif

July 1, 2025

👉 WTI crude futures prices are forming 5-day support near their quarterly averages, bracing for further moves, while traders remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and a likely agreement to raise output by another 411,000 barrels per day in August.

👉 Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data is expected to show a sixth straight weekly drop in crude inventories. Looking at U.S. inventories, there is no oversupply. In fact, for this time of year, inventories are at an 11-year low.

Analysts in a Wall Street Journal poll expect crude inventories to fall 1.7 million barrels to 413.4 million barrels, and are also forecasting a second week of declines in gasoline and diesel inventories.

👉 In the 20th of June, futures prices suffered a major decline. However, it was not so large as to enrage oil bulls, forcing them to sell their positions, many of which were accumulated a quarter earlier at 2025 lows.
Instead, many of these were short-term speculative bets on a rebound after the rapid rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, while the strategic long positions of the bulls may remain intact.

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Best wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎