Cocoa Bounce From Demand – Can This Lead to a New 2025 High?

On June 11th, price reacted sharply to a key demand block around the 8,880–9,000 zone, which aligns with:

Golden Pocket Fib (0.705–0.78) between 8,420 and 9,006

The midpoint of a previous consolidation range

A liquidity sweep followed by a strong bullish rejection

The RSI is showing a bullish divergence (lower lows on price vs rising RSI), which supports a possible technical rebound.

🟣 Immediate target: 10,400–10,600 (supply zone)
🔴 The bullish bias would be invalidated on a close below 8,850

📈 Commitments of Traders (COT) – as of June 3, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators): still net long, but reduced their long exposure by -2,006 contracts, and trimmed shorts slightly as well

Commercials: remain heavily net short with over 61,000 contracts (61.4% of OI), indicating ongoing hedging by producers

Open Interest dropped by -1,257 → a sign of general position liquidation

➡️ The reduction in speculative longs likely reflects profit-taking after the May rally, but overall net positioning remains bullish on a medium-term view.

📅 Seasonality – June
On the 20, 15 and 10-year averages, June typically shows a moderately bullish rebound, often following weakness in May.

On the 5 and 2-year views, however, performance is more neutral to slightly negative.

Historically, June acts as a consolidation or pre-rally month, often preceding a stronger uptrend in July–August.

🧠 Operational Outlook
Bias: Moderately bullish in the short term, with potential recovery toward 10,400. Structure still shows signs of broader distribution, so caution remains in the medium term.

🎯 Trade idea:

Aggressive long initiated on the bounce from demand

First target: 10,400

Breakout extension: 11,200

Invalidation on daily close below 8,850