CADJPY – holding for 109.50

13 Eyl 2023

While NOK (Norwegian krone) has the strongest statistical relationship with Brent and WTI crude, we can see a strengthening correlation between crude and the CAD. We see the 1-month correlation between crude and CADJPY at 0.68, so it's meaningful. We also see (on the daily) price breaking out of the top of its recent range of 108.50. While many will be concerned with being short JPY, given BoJ intervention risk, for now, traders remain happy to fade JPY strength as carry is still attractive (given the low volatility). Also, with crude on the rise the market sees this benefiting Canada’s terms of trade, while it negatively impacts Japan’s economics given, they are a big importer of energy. The bulls happy to hold for 109.50, stops on a daily close below the 5-Day EMA.