BTC Wave-by-Wave Analysis 3: Bullish Scenario

2 Mar 2022

Based on my previous post "An Elliot Wave Analysis of the BTC correction" and "BTC Wave-by-Wave Analysis 2: Bullish Scenario" things are going well as projected. Internal 5-wave counts of the recent pump (37,000-44,949) are completed and are expected to retrace soon. There are 2 possible retracements areas: below or above the price of wave 1 at 40348.45. Retracement area 1 will be from 40,974.50 - 41,912.48 with an invalidation at 40348.45. If the retracement area 1 is invalidated price may drop as low as 37,906.19 - 40,036.52 with an invalidation at 37,000 and if this happens the wave count will be labeled as 1st wave of the 3rd wave. Retracement area 1 will give a 46.2K-49.3K wave 5 while retracement area 2 will give a 49.1K-50.7K wave 3 of 3rd wave.

I am technically bullish in general but I can not ignore the signs of retracements for the following reasons the 5 internal waves are completed, long upper shadow and bearish engulfing candles, and the BTC CME gap at 42,050-42960. All these signs will only be invalidated if the price breaks 44,949.

3 Mar 2022

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Retracement currently playing out