BTCUSD Bitcoin Another Potential IHS in formation

19 Ağu 2018

BTCUSD Bitcoin Another Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders in Formation

Bitcoin has held up well overnight and is now making a lazy attempt to grind higher and potentially to complete an inverse H&S with a minimum upside target at 7400 - but the biggest test will come at the neck-line at 6615 on this feed.

It has to break above here on rising volume to trigger.
Would rather buy dips again at this point and see how it reacts at the neck line if touched later.
If it can make it to the neck-line and volume stays low it will more than likely reverse lower again from there...at least at first.

The last big IHS to left of chart was a massive fail to begin with on the first test of the neckine - it went on to make a deep right shoulder but still completed to the upside in the end if you remember.
The last little H&S yesterday was very true too (within 1 point anyway).
But the IHS before the one shown at left of the chart was a failure.
They are roughly 60%/40% successful in my experience (at least the ones mentioned here anyway)

Time will tell, as always.

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19 Ağu 2018

Not

Bitcoin Nearer term

First resistance is at the 6451 line and it should come back again from here and start to move sideways a little but don't see it falling away much, maybe to 6374 before it rallies again.
It all depends on volume/interest on a so far rather slow Sunday...
A break above 6451 should be posaitive for a move back to the neck-line at 6615.
For there as comment above.
Be lucky.

20 Ağu 2018

Not

Bitcoin Monday Update

Bitcoin held up right through to the futures re-opening but lack of interest never took it back to the 6615 line to give a realistic shorting point.
Since then it's lost the 6451 support line and although it could have been shorted from here the decline so far looks corrective in nature and has a decent chance of finding support at 6344 and the junction of the smaller decending parallel with the rising dynamic which is still managing to support the lows (green arrow).


Downside
Cannot turn aggressively bearish from here unless the next support line at 6287 is broken - selling volume will have to start rising from there to flip it back in stages to 5971-5880 range. There's further support at 6230-6200 range and if volume stays light at this stage it will likely make a counter rally back to 6287 and potentially right back to the underside of the dynamic arrowed on the chart.
Then it should fall away again and once 6200 is broken it should start to pick up speed and sales back to 5971- 5880 range.
This should be the safest part of the short if triggered - it could be quite stubborn in breaking much lower than the green arrow though to start with and will need some sales volume to pick up to warrant staying short from any break below the arrow.

Upside
This move lower looks corrective whist held within the small channel from the overnight highs and Bitcoin is still positive overall whilst it holds and consolidates within the channel.
Once it breaks out of the channel to the upside and breaks above the 6451 line it can be followed long again with stops under the same line by 15 or so points.

Then will come the biggest test of bull intent. It has to break above the 6615-6625 range on rising volume to follow aggressively long again or to add looking for 6815 initially but later for 7137 and once broken to 7400 which is the minimum measurement implication of the IHS, which so far is still in play.

Until then this is back in near term neutral but only looking mildly bearish at this point.