BTC - halving up or halving down?

18 Nis 2024

Just showing some geometry and levels that have proven relevant and I'm watching on the way towards halving.

Currently sitting on a Pitchforkmedian as well as the EMA 89 on the daily, which also held the last significant low (though it allowed a short break below):



Lower channel line which has shown relevance as support and resistance in the past, will it hold now?



Fibonacci channel in arithmetic view, next levels belwo at 54k-57k, below that 48k-50k:



Some more fibonacci channel lines in log view, sitting right on a last hold here until 59k, then air down ~52k:



Some fibonacci extension clusters:



Getting a sustained break here to the downside could lead to 57k and lower.


So basically for continuation upwards from here on, you'd really want to see the support clusters here hold, since a sustained break to the downside could lead to 57k and below for the next stop and ultimately as low as 50k.

18 Nis 2024

Not

Bonus bit, total market cap:



Same conclusion, sitting right at a possible support, that would need to hold, otherwise a sustained drop below could lead to a 10%-20% drop in total market cap.

28 Nis 2024

Not

So far holding on pretty much all images previously shown:





These two also already had predictions for a stop of an upwards move, which worked great (blue trendline around 66.5k and blue + purple horizontal lines around 67k):

4 May 2024

Not

Daily view lost the pitchfork median and currently testing it from below, where a bunch of EMAs are also centering. Really needs to get above all that again for a more bullish outlook:



Weekly view, bounced exactly off the 21 EMA:



Fibonacci extension cluster (compare last two updates), after losing the 61.5k went straight for the next level I had on there below at 56.9k and gave a reaction there:



Now sitting inside the 61.5-64.5k cluster again. Needs to get above that, otherwise it's a possible resistance cluster now.


Arithmetic view fib channel (compare third image of initial post):



Less complicated, here's a trendline:



In summary: sitting right at multiple possible resistance clusters, getting above and holding above all of them would look good for the bulls (at least short/mid-term). Getting denied here could very well lead to at least revisiting the last low.


Total market cap managed to hold that 2.08T level I had on my chart for the time being: