Bitcoin Downtrend Confirmed: What's Next?

Bitcoin has been falling off hard over the last couple of days. While we're currently trading almost 10% above the 53.4k lows, the downtrend has been established and BTC bulls are losing the fight in the short-term.

In my view, BTC has confirmed a longer-term downtrend by making a lower-low (56.7k was the previous low, blue line) and by falling through the 200-day SMA.

Yes, I can see us bounce a bit further because of indicators being very oversold, but I'm not expecting a new all-time high anytime soon.

My current most likely scenario is a move towards the dotted purple support over the next 2-3 months and a bullish reversal in Q4.

How do you seen BTC perform? Share your thoughts.