BTC preparing for next leg down
Hello everyone,
There is not much to say here. In my previous idea, I highlighted how BTC has started a clear intermediate beartrend and I was expecting a break of 42k to reach 35-36k. That's happened.
Now what I am eyeing although we saw an increase in volume at this level with a spring at 33k it looks like bulls are not following through and bears are clearly in control. This was more profit-taking and break-even point for some (in my opinion) rather then a buying zone. Although we have the recurring buy the dip narrative, this is mainly driven by retail investors who do not understand markets dynamics and macroeconomy. With the current FOMC meeting, high inflation, end of tapering in March and rates hikes BTC like other risks on assets are suffering a bear trend. Who had to de-risk has likely already done so and we have now retail money and Long-term investor in the markets.
Rule number one of trading, NEVER TRADE COUNTER TREND. Although there are people that are able to make money counter-trend, I would like to ask you something: Are you able to row counter stream? Maybe... a lot of energy and likely to fail.
Then my suggestion is to try to long in a bear trend and wait for a clear reversal before entering the market.
Nevertheless, BTC is creating a clear pattern in which the 20MA and 50 MA are currently dynamic resistances and is trading in a channel. BTC is now approaching for the 4th time the 20 MA and I do not have reason to believe BTC will have a reversal her. Although many will argue that RSI and other indicators are oversold. Well, I suggest you stop using them or learn to use them because in a bear trend the RSI and Stoch RSI migrate to the south portion of the scale and trade there for an extensive period of time, which indicates that bears are in control and there is low momentum for bulls.
Nevertheless, I believe BTC after this leg down to 29k will enjoy a small relief rally back to 34-35 before continuing down to set the bottom at 22k.
If BTC manages to break the resistance at 41k then I will change my mind and start to possibly look for longs. However, now the picture is clear and anything below 41k is a short opportunity.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
There is not much to say here. In my previous idea, I highlighted how BTC has started a clear intermediate beartrend and I was expecting a break of 42k to reach 35-36k. That's happened.
Now what I am eyeing although we saw an increase in volume at this level with a spring at 33k it looks like bulls are not following through and bears are clearly in control. This was more profit-taking and break-even point for some (in my opinion) rather then a buying zone. Although we have the recurring buy the dip narrative, this is mainly driven by retail investors who do not understand markets dynamics and macroeconomy. With the current FOMC meeting, high inflation, end of tapering in March and rates hikes BTC like other risks on assets are suffering a bear trend. Who had to de-risk has likely already done so and we have now retail money and Long-term investor in the markets.
Rule number one of trading, NEVER TRADE COUNTER TREND. Although there are people that are able to make money counter-trend, I would like to ask you something: Are you able to row counter stream? Maybe... a lot of energy and likely to fail.
Then my suggestion is to try to long in a bear trend and wait for a clear reversal before entering the market.
Nevertheless, BTC is creating a clear pattern in which the 20MA and 50 MA are currently dynamic resistances and is trading in a channel. BTC is now approaching for the 4th time the 20 MA and I do not have reason to believe BTC will have a reversal her. Although many will argue that RSI and other indicators are oversold. Well, I suggest you stop using them or learn to use them because in a bear trend the RSI and Stoch RSI migrate to the south portion of the scale and trade there for an extensive period of time, which indicates that bears are in control and there is low momentum for bulls.
Nevertheless, I believe BTC after this leg down to 29k will enjoy a small relief rally back to 34-35 before continuing down to set the bottom at 22k.
If BTC manages to break the resistance at 41k then I will change my mind and start to possibly look for longs. However, now the picture is clear and anything below 41k is a short opportunity.
FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
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