Over the last few days bitcoin has shown us a number of reasons to indicate that this short term down swing has reversed. The good news is that:
Bitcoin has broken out of the triangle to the upside
The MACD's histogram has been moving in a positive direction since the 19th of May
The RSI left oversold territory and has stayed above 30 - indicating upward momentum
The MACD has crossed the signal line - indicating upward momentum
However, the $40,000 line is not only a historic resistance level, but it is also a psychology significant number. It would be great news if we were to break that 40k level. And as we have learned about Bitcoin, the news can have a MAJOR affect on the price of bitcoin.
There is also the 200 day MA to contend with. There will still be bearish sentiment in the market as long as we are under that level. We are "In a bear market" according to many.
So if Bitcoin does not break 40k, and does not break the 200 day moving average, than we could see another retracement back down.
This is all in the short term though. Since the beginning of the year and continuing now, there has been huge institutional investment into Bitcoin.
I am not sure where bitcoin is headed in the next month or two but, I'd be shocked if it does not hit 100k by the end of the year.
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