BTCUSDT Correction development scenario of bear market terminus

9 Şub 2023

BTC just made a pullback to neckline of the major Head and Shoulders formation on macro. Now, the price action is abandoning the distributive structure with weak volume, due to a micro H&S.

Points of interest

We can see on this chart levels to be watch in a potential swing downward. BTC has been trading in a choppy structure, consolidating within a ending diagonal. The potential drawdown till FEB close tends to be form a monthly bearish Harami candlestick pattern, which is highly reliable on higher timeframes.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wtRM8kGL

This pattern can be consider highly reliable. A Harami bearish just play out on the last weekly close (1W) and tends to be form on 1M, in which is a rare case. In bear markets, this pattern is an important reversal signal after a rally of relief, indicating an intermediary point for an 2nd and final swing leg-down. On this chart, you can see that the potential throw-over of actual consolidation (choppy structure / breakout of Harami) is in confluence w/ a expected final swing leg-down of an expanding ending diagonal.

9 Şub 2023

Not

Historically, all time the price retested 70.7% of the same Fibonacci retracement from bottom to HH, BTC has ignite his final leg-down, as we can see on this chart of BLX INDEX with all historic price action:

9 Şub 2023

Not

As shown on the BLX 1M chart, in all the occurrences of a Harami bearish, only in three the Harami close not anticipate a low price.