BTCUSDT Analysis_Buy the rumor, Sell the truth

31 Eki 2023

Hello traders, here is the DVD!
Last week saw a strong increase in price of not only Bitcoin but also the crypto market in general. The bullish story stems from market-wide excitement about Bitcoin ETFs soon receiving approval from the SEC. There are many big players in the financial industry who have applied for approval to the SEC such as: Blackrock, Grayscale,... So if at least one BTC ETF is approved, large institutional cash flow will pour in hundreds of billions, even venting trillions of dollars into the crypto market. With such extreme mania, Bitcoin and the entire market have increased in price regardless, and many people have thought that the cryptocurrency winter is over and spring has returned.
However, let's sit down and review whether the above is correct:
- The FED and major central banks have not yet started the monetary easing cycle. This is the key point, because the era of cheap money has not yet come. Until there is a firm "dove" monetary policy from the FED, Bitcoin and crypto or any other risky assets cannot have a miraculous increase.
- Up until now, all the news from the press that made the news last week was still just rumors about the approval of Bitcoin ETF funds. All current buying is based on rumors. Once the truth is exposed like Bitcoin ETF will not be approved or the approval process takes a long time, then the act of selling the truth will take place.
Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on October 31:
Events that took place during the distribution phase:
- At 5:00 a.m. on October 23, a candle had strong buying pressure (price increased rapidly and volume spiked) and pulled down but still closed over 50% of the candle, creating PSY (Preliminary Supply).
- Next, at 9:00 a.m. on October 24, the buyers continued to frantically buy more in a hurry. It was also the time when news broke that Bitcoin ETFs were about to be approved. This is when the big guys gradually take profits from the amount of goods they have previously stored. We have point BC (Buying Climax) as shown on the graph.
- Because the supply from the big guy is very large, after point BC, naturally we have a rebound in price, which means the big guy can close out a quantity of goods in this segment. That creates AR (automatic reaction).
- The price returned to the supply and demand zone BC to retest this zone, 2 withdrawal candles along with a decrease in volume compared to the previous points PSY, BC and AR confirmed: supply is greater than demand. to is gradually dominating and closing their sales volume. Because if there is still a lot of demand, the price increase combined with large volume must be enough to break through resistance BC. At the end of the first ST generation, phase A of the accumulation phase has formed. Trading range is made up of AR support and BC resistance.
- Entering phase B, the big guy showed off his abundant supply with a strong downward candle that retested AR support, the large volume here showed this, creating a SOW (Sign of weakness). ).
- Continuing in the following hours, the price moves inside the trading range so that the big guys gradually distribute all the goods.
Events that may occur in the near future and guide trading:
- Phase B has been taking place. However, the UT (Upthrust) event has not yet occurred: the price broke through the BC resistance and quickly closed back to the trading range with large volume.
- The most feasible plan right now is to wait for the UT event to take place and sell short. The main entry point is the closing price of the candle confirming the completion of the UT, the stop loss point is above the top of the UT, the take profit point is AR support.

Let's wait and see if Bitcoin's upcoming actions reflect the true idiom: "Buy the rumor, sell the truth".
Safe trading!
DVD