Whether a full-fledged upward trend has begun: 69K-70231.38

20 May

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(USDT 1D chart)


(USDC 1D chart)


If USDT and USDC show a rising gap, I think it is evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.


(BTC.D 1M chart)

In order for the coin market to continue its upward trend, it must meet resistance and fall in the 55.01-62.47 range.

If this is not the case and BTC dominance continues to rise, it is highly likely that funds in the coin market will be concentrated towards BTC, making it quite difficult to trade altcoins.

(USDT.D 1M chart)

In order for the coin market to continue its upward trend, it must remain below 4.97 or show a downward trend.


Summarizing the explanations of BTC dominance and USDT dominance, in order for a bull market in the coin market, that is, a bull market in which most coins (tokens) rise, to begin, BTC dominance and USDT dominance must show a downward trend.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

This volatility period lasts until May 20th.

If the price rises above 69K-70231.38 and maintains the price, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin.

The key to this full-fledged uptrend is whether it can break above the upper point of the HA-High indicator box on the 1D chart.


If not, and it goes down,


Support should be checked around 65233.64 (64K-66401.82).

Currently, the MS-Signal indicator (M-Signal on 1D chart) is passing around 65233.64, so it is important to see whether the price can be maintained above this point.


(1M charts)

If the price holds above the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.27 (73308.95), the next target would be around 1.618 (88913.24).

If it declines in the first section, you need to check for support in the second section.


The HA 5EMA line is rising near 0.886 (56090.42), so if it falls below 0.886, there is a possibility that a downtrend will begin.

Therefore, caution is required as sharp drops may occur.


The next period of volatility is around June 4th.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The indicators used to find a position to start a trade are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.

And, the indicator used to verify this is the BW indicator.


Have a good time.
thank you

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- The big picture

A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.


#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.

Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.

#BTCUSD 1M

If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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21 May

Not

(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

(A trend line is a line drawn after the movement of a price candle.)

The trend line drawn on the chart was drawn utilizing the StochRSI indicator from the TS - BW indicator.

The trend line (4) is a line created by connecting the low point of the price candle corresponding to the low point of the StochRSI indicator.

Therefore, trend line (4) can be seen as marking a low point.


The trend line (5) is a line created by connecting the opening prices of the falling candles among the price candles corresponding to the high point of the StochRSI indicator.

Therefore, trend line (5) can be seen as marking the high point.


Therefore, a rising channel consisting of trend lines (4) to (5) was created.


(1D chart)

Trendline (1) is the previous trendline drawn on the 1D chart.

Therefore, the trend lines drawn on 1D charts are short-term trend lines.

The order in which the trend lines were drawn was (1) -> (2) -> (3).

Therefore, until the trend line (3) was drawn, an upward channel was created at the low point formed by (1) to (2).

After that, the trend line (3) was drawn, completing the channel formed by (2) to (3).

Therefore, the current important short-term trend line corresponds to (3).


Trend lines are used to analyze charts and predict periods of volatility.

The next period of volatility will be around June 4th.

However, since movement may occur in advance around May 27th or May 29th, you should check for support near that point.


Therefore, when trading, you should check the support and resistance points drawn at the current price location rather than the trend line and create a trading strategy.

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The 70231.38 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1D chart.

Therefore, this is the point where the high point is formed on the 1D chart.


69K is the previous high point.

Therefore, the current important section is the 69K-70231.38 section.

It is highly likely that a full-fledged uptrend will begin only when it is supported in this important section and maintains its rise above at least 71280.01 or breaks upward above the upper point of the HA-High indicator box (72797.99) on the 1D chart.


If it is not supported and falls, you should check for support near the HA-High indicator (65233.64) on the 1W chart.

Therefore, we need to check for support around 64K-66401.82.


To put the above in a different way, you can start trading depending on whether there is support around 69K-70231.38.

As I said before, if you did not buy in installments when the HA-Low indicator was created, you cannot easily buy even if it appears to be supported by the current price maintenance.

The reason is that it is in the peak range and psychologically there is a high level of anxiety about decline.

Accordingly, it is highly likely that the section where you will actually purchase will be when it rises above 72797.99, which was the previous high point.

This is because FOMO comes into play.



Looking at the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart, it has not yet risen above 30.

Therefore, it is not yet out of the oversold zone.

However, if StochRSI > StochRSI EMA remains, it is expected to eventually rise above 30 and show an upward trend.

Therefore, whether or not there is support around 69K is an important issue.


Ultimately, in order to enter a short position, I think it is best to enter when resistance appears around 69K.

22 May

Not

I believe that the decline in the gap between USDT and USDC is a sign of funds outflow from the coin market.

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

We need to check whether it can rise along the rising channel consisting of trend lines (2) to (3).

Therefore, we need to check for support around 69K-70231.38.

If it falls below 69K and falls below the rising channel, you should check for support around 65233.64 (64K-66401.82).


(BTC.D 1M chart)


(USDT.D 1M chart)


If BTC dominance falls below 55.01-62.47 and remains or shows a downward trend and USDT dominance falls below 4.97 and remains or shows a downward trend, the coin market is expected to show an upward trend.

Therefore, I think the current decline is likely a profit-taking on the rise.

Therefore, you must respond to the investment period according to your investment style.


From a short-term perspective, a trading strategy is needed around 69K-70231.38, and from a mid- to long-term perspective, a trading strategy is needed around 65233.64 (64K-65233.64).

23 May

Not

#BTCUSDT

Due to this decline, it appears that a new HA-High indicator is being created.

Accordingly, if the HA-High indicator is created at the 67614.25 point, the key is whether it can be supported and rise around 67614.25.


The fact that the HA-High indicator was created by falling means that the high point has fallen.

For this decline to begin a cascading decline, it must fall below the HA-Low indicator.

Therefore, it is important whether there is support at 62791.03, which is the current HA-Low indicator point.


In any case, maintaining the price above the HA-High indicator means that there is a high possibility that a full-fledged upward trend will begin, so it is necessary to check the movement around the HA-High indicator.

23 May

Not

USDT is showing a further gap increase after the gap fall.
Therefore, we can see that funds were inflow through USDT.


USDC is also showing a gap increase after the gap fell.

23 May

Not

USDT appears to have risen by a gap.


USDC is showing a downward trend.

Accordingly, it is expected to show a short-term decline or sideways trend.




If the decline in BTC dominance and USDT dominance continues, the coin market is expected to show an upward trend.


(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

It appears that the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart will be created at the 67614.25 point.

Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise around 67614.25.

If not, and it falls, you should check for support around 65233.64 (64K-66401.82), which is the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart.


Since the short-term high point is expected to decline, I believe that support around 67614.25 will be an important issue.

In order to show a cascading decline, it must fall below the HA-Low indicator, so it is likely to begin only when it falls below 62791.03.


The rising trend line (1) is the low trend line drawn on the 1W chart.

Therefore, even if it falls, you need to check whether it can rise along the upward trend line (1).


Therefore, the next period of volatility will be around June 4 (June 3-5).

Volatility may occur from around May 27-29 before this volatility period, but it is expected that a trend will eventually form after the volatility period around June 4.

25 May

Not

#BTCUSDT