This might not be the most popular opinion, especially among those who still believe the current Bitcoin bull cycle hasn’t ended. However, I encourage you to take a few minutes, approach this with an open mind, and let me know whether you agree or disagree.
Understanding the Previous Cycle (2020–2021)
The last Bitcoin bull cycle began in March 2020, when BTC bottomed at approximately $3,810. It then surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,870 in November 2021, marking the cycle top.
By applying a Fibonacci retracement to this entire range, we can see that the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.786 Fib)—often a key support zone during bear markets—fell between $17,700 and $28,690.
Looking at the chart, BTC beautifully retraced into this zone, even dipping slightly below it to form a cycle bottom at $15,500 in November 2022.
The key sign that the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun was when Bitcoin broke above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous cycle and established a higher high on the weekly chart. This marked a clear shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure.
The Current Cycle (2022–2025)
From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin rallied, setting a new ATH at $73,600—just slightly above the previous peak. After some consolidation, it found strong support at the 0.236 Fib level of the previous bull cycle, signaling that the uptrend was still intact.
The real breakout came when BTC surpassed the psychological $100,000 level and consolidated around the -0.5 Fib extension of the previous cycle. The cycle top appears to have been put in after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, marking an approximately 26-month bull run—longer than previous cycles.
However, a major bear market confirmation signal has now emerged: BTC has decisively broken below the 0.236 Fib retracement of this cycle, which historically signals the end of a bull market and the beginning of a new bear phase.
Where is the Next Bottom?
By analyzing the Fibonacci levels of both the previous and current bull cycles, we can identify key potential support zones where Bitcoin may bottom out:
1. $51,370 - $53,700
• This range aligns with:
• 0.236 Fib of the previous bull cycle
• 0.618 Fib of the most recent bull cycle
• This zone has confluence, making it a high-probability support level.
2. $35,600 - $36,500
• This range aligns with:
• 0.5 Fib of the previous bull cycle
• 0.786 Fib of the most recent bull cycle
• If BTC breaks below the first support zone, this is the next key level to watch.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around one year, so we can expect this downward trend to play out over a similar timeframe.
How to Position Yourself?
For long-term investors, these support zones offer prime buying opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices before the next bull run begins. While the market won’t move in a straight line down—expect bounces and fake-outs—the general expectation is that BTC will find its next higher low within one of these zones.
Looking Ahead: Next Bull Cycle Target
If we use the same -0.5 Fib extension strategy that predicted the previous cycle’s top, we can estimate the next bull market peak. Based on the current cycle’s Fib range, the projected ATH for the next bull run would be around $157,000.
Final Thoughts
While nobody can predict the future with certainty, historical price action, Fibonacci levels, and market structure provide strong clues about where BTC is headed next. As always, flexibility is key—if market conditions change, so should our expectations. But if history repeats itself, these levels offer a solid framework for identifying the best entry points and positioning for the next major bull run.
What do you think? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see it differently? Let me know in the comments!
Understanding the Previous Cycle (2020–2021)
The last Bitcoin bull cycle began in March 2020, when BTC bottomed at approximately $3,810. It then surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,870 in November 2021, marking the cycle top.
By applying a Fibonacci retracement to this entire range, we can see that the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.786 Fib)—often a key support zone during bear markets—fell between $17,700 and $28,690.
Looking at the chart, BTC beautifully retraced into this zone, even dipping slightly below it to form a cycle bottom at $15,500 in November 2022.
The key sign that the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun was when Bitcoin broke above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous cycle and established a higher high on the weekly chart. This marked a clear shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure.
The Current Cycle (2022–2025)
From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin rallied, setting a new ATH at $73,600—just slightly above the previous peak. After some consolidation, it found strong support at the 0.236 Fib level of the previous bull cycle, signaling that the uptrend was still intact.
The real breakout came when BTC surpassed the psychological $100,000 level and consolidated around the -0.5 Fib extension of the previous cycle. The cycle top appears to have been put in after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, marking an approximately 26-month bull run—longer than previous cycles.
However, a major bear market confirmation signal has now emerged: BTC has decisively broken below the 0.236 Fib retracement of this cycle, which historically signals the end of a bull market and the beginning of a new bear phase.
Where is the Next Bottom?
By analyzing the Fibonacci levels of both the previous and current bull cycles, we can identify key potential support zones where Bitcoin may bottom out:
1. $51,370 - $53,700
• This range aligns with:
• 0.236 Fib of the previous bull cycle
• 0.618 Fib of the most recent bull cycle
• This zone has confluence, making it a high-probability support level.
2. $35,600 - $36,500
• This range aligns with:
• 0.5 Fib of the previous bull cycle
• 0.786 Fib of the most recent bull cycle
• If BTC breaks below the first support zone, this is the next key level to watch.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around one year, so we can expect this downward trend to play out over a similar timeframe.
How to Position Yourself?
For long-term investors, these support zones offer prime buying opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices before the next bull run begins. While the market won’t move in a straight line down—expect bounces and fake-outs—the general expectation is that BTC will find its next higher low within one of these zones.
Looking Ahead: Next Bull Cycle Target
If we use the same -0.5 Fib extension strategy that predicted the previous cycle’s top, we can estimate the next bull market peak. Based on the current cycle’s Fib range, the projected ATH for the next bull run would be around $157,000.
Final Thoughts
While nobody can predict the future with certainty, historical price action, Fibonacci levels, and market structure provide strong clues about where BTC is headed next. As always, flexibility is key—if market conditions change, so should our expectations. But if history repeats itself, these levels offer a solid framework for identifying the best entry points and positioning for the next major bull run.
What do you think? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see it differently? Let me know in the comments!
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.